Out of Respect for the members Posting Legitimate responses Please do not Post Trolling inflammatory Comments!
Non-Members Posting non-sense only Destroys the Integrity of the Wood Web!
I am a Registered Member with nothing to hide Posting a Legitimate Millwork Industry Question!
Thank you in advance for your Respect,
No Reply to this Comment is Expected any Issues Should be Addressed with the Wood Web Staff and not Posted here!
@Pat Gilbert, Thank you for your Reply. I know that In Detroit Mi. Metro Detroit Area, at least 10 Major Millwork Companies have gone out of Business Since 2007.
I am Sure AWI Would have Some states on this Issue, that is the other place i am asking this Question.
@PAT, My data has just been coming from shop owners and Industry Pros. In the Metro Detroit Area, and Yes they had a Bubble. also Michigan was in a single-state recession. Its unemployment rate, at 7.1% before the Great Recession of 2008 ever hit the USA in a Whole.
@Mark Elliott , Yes I have been hearing things are on the up tick now in the "D". But Detroit Took a Beating over the last Decade. I hear the Michigan housing industry is poised for the best year since the Great Recession of 2008.
One of my sheet goods suppliers was just in and we talked about D
etroit. They are in the process of adding another rep to make 3 for that area. He says its over the top busy. ON the other hand, I just went to Canada for a long weekend over the 4th and made sure to not get off the freeway in the area:)
The question that I have regarding Detroit, and other similar cities, is what type of work is in demand? Is it high end custom work? Store Fixtures? Low end starter kitchens to replace burnt out houses? Residential? Commercial? Government? Healthcare? Institutional?
It's not so much that there is new housing going up, it's all about people updating their homes because they're not going to move any time soon. But of the houses that are being built, many are 7 figure homes.
The 2 major store fixture companies are working overtime to keep up with demand.
At one time, and I think it still may be true, Oakland County, one county north of Detroit, was 1 of the top 10 counties for wealth.
The auto industry made this a very well to do area.
As for the level of work, it's all pretty much high end that I'm seeing and dealing with.
You could make a couple of mouse clicks and get 2012 data which is the most recent the census has.
You could search state tax records, business license records, contractor license boards and maybe come up with a list of companies that are no longer here.
Personally this is a statistic that has no measurable value to me. Without knowing a set of circumstances that led a profitable company to closing during the worse recession in a few years there is no meaning or sales value to me.
Back to the original question if 15 shops went out of business in the middle of Nebraska because they all sold into highly leveraged areas on the east and west coast and made no local sales, other than that part of Nebraska getting hurt how is it locally relative, they would have been victims of customers that were no longer buying from them for reasons that had nothing to do with their companies geography and everything to do with the geography of where they made their sales. So what is the usefulness a statistic of their closing and geography? Is the plan to get a meaningful statistic based on closings and then try and determine cause or how much market is now available?
There is not enough information in a geographic closing to make meaningful assumptions unless you measure every metropolitan area by size and closing and can determine deviations from the mean that exceed an expected deviation.
At what point do we get back to why is this information valuable to us in selling our work or selling our business or managing our business.
Thank you for your response. That was the type of anecdotal evidence that I sought. There are several valuable points that I can garner from your observations that may apply to my market (in a completely different part of the country).
My goal is to get a feel for the current mood or sentiment of buyers and the market. I know this varies regionally and locally, but sometimes trends are felt on a national basis as well.
Past statistics do not predict the future any more than past performance of the stock market can predict future stock prices. So, I either take historical statistics with a grain of salt, or disregard them totally. (Yes, I know that people who ignore the past are likely to repeat the same mistakes. But, that isn't the point. One needs more information than just history.)
No disrespect to the numbers in the government-collected census statistics, but knowing what is happening in real-time, as the market is constantly changing, is more important to me. In fact, it may mean life or death of a business if the wrong assumptions are made. Being able to spot current and future trends in the marketplace is extremely vital. And that is "information valuable to us in selling our work or selling our business or managing our business."
A tautological statement is an unnecessary repetition of the obvious. In order to have any significance it needs to provide some call to action. To say the sky is often blue is one thing, to say we anticipate a heat wave so drink plenty of water and remember to check in on your elderly neighbors is quite another.
We know that people are sometimes happy and they tend to spend more money when their mood is buoyant. What we are looking for is what kinds of events constitute yellow flags for contingency planning.
A lot of would-be entrepreneurs deal in fuzzy platitudes. They don't have a plan for failure because in their world there is no such thing as a problem, there are only opportunities. These people sleep through the manifestations of problems because they can't recognize the clues. After they finally wake up they spend some time trying to develop a strategy to combat the problem and then they have to survive through phase three while they are waiting to discover if phase two strategy actually works.
A more experienced entrepreneur can recognize a storm front because they have proactively determined what constitutes a yellow flag. When they see one they keep an eye on the horizon but immediately go stand next to the red lever. When the second yellow flag pops up they pull the red lever. The length of time period between when problem manifests and solution kicks is greatly decreased while odds of success are greatly enhanced.
So what kinds of events constitute yellow flags in our industry? That's where this question should be focused and that's how past is prologue to the future.
WOW, Thank you all for the blazing comments. Unfortunately my question has gone basically unanswered while everyone asks why I am asking this question or telling me what Questions I really should be asking. I have one very good and purposeful reason for asking this Question of which I am keeping to myself for Business Development reasons at this present time! If you know of, or have heard of Millwork and casework shops going out of Business in a particular city please post that information here! If anyone wants to discuss my reasons feel free to call of e-mail me! Thank you all for your participation.
Perhaps you could rephrase the question.
Are you looking for anecdotal observations or empirical information?
What constitutes a millwork/casework shop for this sample? Is there a threshold of employee size or production volume that is germane to your question?
Are you looking for numerical data or trends? Did a village that lost one of it's three shops lose more than a village that lost 2 of 10?
Maybe a better source of information would the people who sell to cabinetshops. We've two or three vendors in the last five years and one or two have been absorbed by bigger companies. These types of businesses would seem to have more reliable information for you than to ask members of this forum to opine on which cities they THINK had the MOST millwork/casework shops go out of business.
FORUM GUIDELINES: Please review the guidelines below before posting at WOODWEB's Interactive Message Boards(return to top)
WOODWEB is a professional industrial woodworking site. Hobbyist and homeowner woodworking questions are inappropriate.
Messages should be kept reasonably short and on topic, relating to the focus of the forum. Responses should relate to the original question.
A valid email return address must be included with each message.
Advertising is inappropriate. The only exceptions are the Classified Ads Exchange, Machinery Exchange, Lumber Exchange, and Job Opportunities and Services Exchange. When posting listings in these areas, review the posting instructions carefully.
Subject lines may be edited for length and clarity.
"Cross posting" is not permitted. Choose the best forum for your question, and post your question at one forum only.
Messages requesting private responses will be removed - Forums are designed to provide information and assistance for all of our visitors. Private response requests are appropriate at WOODWEB's Exchanges and Job Opportunities and Services.
Messages that accuse businesses or individuals of alleged negative actions or behavior are inappropriate since WOODWEB is unable to verify or substantiate the claims.
Posts with the intent of soliciting answers to surveys are not appropriate. Contact WOODWEB for more information on initiating a survey.
Excessive forum participation by an individual upsets the balance of a healthy forum atmosphere. Individuals who excessively post responses containing marginal content will be considered repeat forum abusers.
Responses that initiate or support inappropriate and off-topic discussion of general politics detract from the professional woodworking focus of WOODWEB, and will be removed.
Participants are encouraged to use their real name when posting. Intentionally using another persons name is prohibited, and posts of this nature will be removed at WOODWEB's discretion.
Carefully review your message before clicking on the "Send Message" button - you will not be able to revise the message once it has been sent.
You will be notified of responses to the message(s) you posted via email. Be sure to enter your email address correctly.
WOODWEB's forums are a highly regarded resource for professional woodworkers. Messages and responses that are crafted in a professional and civil manner strengthen this resource. Messages that do not reflect a professional tone reduce the value of our forums.
Messages are inappropriate when their content: is deemed libelous in nature or is based on rumor, fails to meet basic standards of decorum, contains blatant advertising or inappropriate emphasis on self promotion (return to top).
Libel: Posts which defame an individual or organization, or employ a tone which can be viewed as malicious in nature. Words, pictures, or cartoons which expose a person or organization to public hatred, shame, disgrace, or ridicule, or induce an ill opinion of a person or organization, are libelous.
Improper Decorum: Posts which are profane, inciting, disrespectful or uncivil in tone, or maliciously worded. This also includes the venting of unsubstantiated opinions. Such messages do little to illuminate a given topic, and often have the opposite effect. Constructive criticism is acceptable (return to top).
Advertising: The purpose of WOODWEB Forums is to provide answers, not an advertising venue. Companies participating in a Forum discussion should provide specific answers to posted questions. WOODWEB suggests that businesses include an appropriately crafted signature in order to identify their company. A well meaning post that seems to be on-topic but contains a product reference may do your business more harm than good in the Forum environment. Forum users may perceive your references to specific products as unsolicited advertising (spam) and consciously avoid your web site or services. A well-crafted signature is an appropriate way to advertise your services that will not offend potential customers. Signatures should be limited to 4-6 lines, and may contain information that identifies the type of business you're in, your URL and email address (return to top).
Repeated Forum Abuse:
Forum participants who repeatedly fail to follow WOODWEB's Forum Guidelines may encounter difficulty when attempting to post messages.
There are often situations when the original message asks for opinions: "What is the best widget for my type of shop?". To a certain extent, the person posting the message is responsible for including specific questions within the message. An open ended question (like the one above) invites responses that may read as sales pitches. WOODWEB suggests that companies responding to such a question provide detailed and substantive replies rather than responses that read as a one-sided product promotion. It has been WOODWEB's experience that substantive responses are held in higher regard by our readers (return to top).
The staff of WOODWEB assume no responsibility for the accuracy, content, or outcome of any posting transmitted at WOODWEB's Message Boards. Participants should undertake the use of machinery, materials and methods discussed at WOODWEB's Message Boards after considerate evaluation, and at their own risk. WOODWEB reserves the right to delete any messages it deems inappropriate. (return to top)
Forum Posting Form Guidelines
The name you enter in this field will be the name that appears with your post or response (return to form).
Personal or business website links must point to the author's website. Inappropriate links will be removed without notice, and at WOODWEB's sole discretion. WOODWEB reserves the right to delete any messages with links it deems inappropriate. (return to form)
Your e-mail address will not be publicly viewable. Forum participants will be able to contact you using a contact link (included with your post) that is substituted for your actual address. You must include a valid email address in this field. (return to form)
Subject may be edited for length and clarity. Subject lines should provide an indication of the content of your post. (return to form)
Thread Related Link and Image Guidelines
Thread Related Links posted at WOODWEB's Forums and Exchanges should point to locations that provide supporting information for the topic being discussed in the current message thread. The purpose of WOODWEB Forums is to provide answers, not to serve as an advertising venue. A Thread Related Link that directs visitors to an area with inappropriate content will be removed. WOODWEB reserves the right to delete any messages with links or images it deems inappropriate. (return to form)
Thread Related File Uploads
Thread Related Files posted at WOODWEB's Forums and Exchanges should provide supporting information for the topic being discussed in the current message thread. Video Files: acceptable video formats are: .MOV .AVI .WMV .MPEG .MPG .FLV .MP4 (Image Upload Tips) If you encounter any difficulty when uploading video files, E-mail WOODWEB for assistance. The purpose of WOODWEB Forums is to provide answers, not to serve as an advertising venue. A Thread Related File that contains inappropriate content will be removed, and uploaded files that are not directly related to the message thread will be removed. WOODWEB reserves the right to delete any messages with links, files, or images it deems inappropriate. (return to form)
The editors, writers, and staff at WOODWEB try to promote safe practices.
What is safe for one woodworker under certain conditions may not be safe
for others in different circumstances. Readers should undertake the use
of materials and methods discussed at WOODWEB after considerate evaluation,
and at their own risk.