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Interesting read about the future of housing

6/5/16       
Pat Gilbert

How housing is going to eat the economy.

Which means how the demand for construction labor is going to out bid other industries for bodies.

Future of housing

6/5/16       #2: Interesting read about the future o ...
TonyF

Pat:

I think that the article addresses the wishful thinking of the housing market and construction industry.

People live in houses, so unless some new, "cutting edge" place to park yourself and your belongings emerges, and it really catches on, people will continue to live in houses, and there is not a housing shortage, so why build more?

Plus, not to disparage millenials, but many of the ones I have met are not the house buying type.

So if everyone who wants and can afford a house already has one, what will become of the housing surplus created by the 600,000 new construction workers?

Supply and demand that is in balance? Check.

Demand created by "housing innovation"? Get real.

Am I missing something?

TonyF

6/5/16       #3: Interesting read about the future o ...
pat gilbert

Tony

Where do you get the innovation idea from? There is nothing in the article about innovation.

The main driver will be demographics, maybe that is what you are missing?

As to the millennials they will grow up.

Remember in the 90s everyone became a programmer? In other words software ate the economy. The author is saying this is going to happen with housing.

There is not a shortage now you are right but wait about 4 years. Construction unemployment is very low now.

6/5/16       #4: Interesting read about the future o ...
Cabmaker

I heard a commentary on the radio about the recent job reports. New hires dipped but what was curious was how they also dipped slightly in construction.

The thinking was that a lot of projects are being delayed for lack of skilled labor. It wasn't a shortage of demand but a shortage instead of the necessary skills to completely round out a project.

6/5/16       #5: Interesting read about the future o ...
TonyF

Pat Gilbert:

The article cites companies that were emerging businesses at the time and were innovative, creating new technologies and rethinking ways of selling what has been sold all along. I don't see that happening in the residential housing market.

There are more houses for sale than there are people buying them. Not exactly the beginning of a boom market.

I am also surprised to hear that you, of all people, are thinking that some kind of reversal of millenial irresponsibility is going to be the "great white hope" of the housing industry.

Cabmaker, if new hires dip, who will buy these houses?

6/5/16       #6: Interesting read about the future o ...
pat gilbert

They did not have a good jobs report for May, but it is not the trend.

The skilled workers part is absolutely true.


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6/5/16       #7: Interesting read about the future o ...
cabmaker

The boom in urban housing is tech based.
These kids make tremendous amounts of money and really enjoy living urban settings close to their friends and amenities they can walk to.

Eventually, however, these 25 year olds will become 35 and start families. At that point they will want to live in houses that have yards.

6/5/16       #8: Interesting read about the future o ...
pat gilbert

Tony

Ok I see what you are looking at. .

The value of their stock is 2.3 trillion dollars. In the early 90s most of those companies did not even exist.

My take away on that reference is that those companies ate the economy.

The main driver will be demographics as it was in the 70s through the 90s

6/5/16       #9: Interesting read about the future o ...
cabmaker

An additional entrant into the residential marketplace will be Wall Street. The pile of money continues to grow every day and this money needs a better return than negative interest rates at the bank.

Wall Street will create REIT funds to buy up single family houses as they come on the market. They are already doing this, starting with those properties that have the best ratios. As more and more of those higher quality (ROI) properties come under corporate ownership these REIT funds will start to purchase properties that are lower and lower in the food chain.

6/5/16       #10: Interesting read about the future o ...
pat gilbert

Maybe I don't know. But rents can't keep going up in perpetuity.

I think a lot of that is from the 2007 crash.

6/6/16       #11: Interesting read about the future o ...
TonyF

Perhaps it is just me, but when I hear the rationales posted here for an economic uptick, it sounds as though people are waiting for post-WW2 America to repeat itself.

That was an entirely different world.

Millenials with money are doing more remodeling of existing urban areas, rather than buying new houses. What is happening in Brooklyn, NY, is a great example, taking over an existing neighborhood and molding it to fit your world view of urban dwelling.

I think it is the new "if you build it, they will come", substituting remodel for build.

Many millenials appear, at least to me, to be too caught up in their jobs, their me-machines, and their urban lifestyles to make the sacrifices that having families require.

I can imagine a glut of houses emerging, and only when the prices fall such that people who don't make six-figure incomes can afford them will they start to turn over.

I would not build houses until people were ready to buy them. Right now I don't see the demand.

6/6/16       #12: Interesting read about the future o ...
Pat Gilbert

Right now there is no demand, but there will be.

Existing houses are cheaper than new houses.

Millennials will grow up.

The boom after WW2 was because of the baby boom. It was not because of the war spending myth.

6/6/16       #13: Interesting read about the future o ...
Alan F.

I think there are two reasons to expect growth
1) growing population will need places to live whether its rent or purchase.

2) Lots of pent up demand over the last 10 years where people have been filling pit holes, divots from 2006-20Xx

3) there is an unknown amount of "off the books" inventory in each area from speculators and banks that took back houses and have been slowly releasing them to market.

Each geographic area is different and demand is different

6/6/16       #14: Interesting read about the future o ...
jonathan mahnken

I think any large scale housing in the future will be more like what we see in socialist European countries. Generic boxes stacked neatly together. The idea of land and housing ownership is less appealing to the younger generation. Everybody whats to be able to vacation and travel every weekend. Being tied down to property and responsibility is not conducive to this popular lifestyle. Custom homes and woodworking are not as important to emerging generations. Its more important to have a bmw and a passport

6/6/16       #15: Interesting read about the future o ...
Family Man

Yes, I see a great housing boom in the future...in tents.

Boomers may be retiring but they are broke. Check out the stats on what they have set aside for retirement. And they are in the best shape of everyone.

50% of the country is living off government hand outs, the next 40% is in debt up to their eyeballs. If we all tap into the final 10% then we are set! Because they are loaded.

Peak debt. The only growth is in the amount of the poor and of debt. QE infinity will run out and when it does this will look like good old days when folks had food to eat, hot water, and electricity...even if they were living in their moms basement. Enjoy the decline! Because war and extreme poverty are in our near future.

6/6/16       #16: Interesting read about the future o ...
Larry

I'm old, have seen many ups & downs, can't control any of it, don't care. I live in a nice house in the burbs but would rather live in the heart of a big city. (Not Chicago!)
Ultimately the market will dictate how many houses get built. Things are always over done one way or the other. I don't buy into the gloom scenario or the gold plated future. Figure on oscillations and don't get out of control.

6/6/16       #17: Interesting read about the future o ...
Family Man

Larry, you've lived in the most blessed 50 year period in human history in the most blessed place on earth during human history...how would someone in China, Russia, any African country, any south American country, Middle Eastern country, etc. in the same time period...or in the USA not in your time period respond in the same way? With all due respect all of your experience is no experience at all. We have no depth to draw from because of reserve currency debt. It bought us several decades of being fat and happy. But sooner or later you have to pay and the payment will be steep. It will be your grandchildren paying. Larry, respectfully age does not breed wisdom but only age. I doubt your grandfather who saw World Wars and the Great Depression would of answered in the same way. There are severe ups (you lived the gold plated already) and there are severe downs (better hope you are real old or you will live it). America ain't what she used to be during your lifetime. Not trying to be disrespectful sir, just pointing out that the vast majority of human history states exactly the opposite of what you state...you are the exception but not the rule.

6/6/16       #18: Interesting read about the future o ...
Pat Gilbert

There really hasn't been much pent up demand. There were the foreclosures but they should have been renters in the 1st place. The millennials are renters because of their age. If you look at the dip in the graph below that indicates why the housing market has been slow.

As you can see in the graph below housing sales have not been this low since the early 60s

Population growth is projected through the Census Bureau

The question is what causes the economy to grow?

The answer is an increase in the population between the ages of 25 and 35.
This is because this is when people start families.

Jobs are created by investment. The biggest investment people will make is when they buy a house and create children.

When they have families they will move to the suburbs as that is practical for a family.

As far as the negative thinking goes I hear ya. I bought into that hook line and sinker but the graphs don't bear that thinking out.


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6/6/16       #19: Interesting read about the future o ...
Family Man

Pat,
Remember few things. Those graphs are: 1) made by people who have an agenda
2) they are made using information provided by a government that wants you to believe we are in a recovery and have a 4.7% unemployment rate
3)they are based on assumptions of the last 40-50 years holding status quo. Even those who do not believe in the "doom and gloom" will tell you we are in a new normal. But they are not following that logic through to its end and insist on using the same equations and formula's that are no longer valid.

Timing is a hard thing to nail Pat, just because it hasn't happened yet does not mean it's not a year, two years or max five years around the corner. Reserve currency and a printing press ultimately are making this last longer than many thought but will make the fall all that much greater and for longer. It's as sure of bet as there is and that's just on the economic side, let alone the civil wars we will face within our country in short order. But I won't get into that here, woodweb keeps us on a short leash to not offend anyone.

Lastly, I cannot tell you how many people I run into that want nothing to do with marriage, children or home ownership. The younger generations obviously do not hold the same values as the older generations. Nor are they in a position to.

6/6/16       #20: Interesting read about the future o ...
Pat Gilbert

FM

That is not going to happen either.

Because the dollar is the reserve currency of the world. No matter how many dollars are printed the money supply is dispersed through out the whole world. IOW the US exports inflation.

As for the debt it doesn't matter because we are never going to pay it back. We will just pay debt service in perpetuity.

Much of the world will not have a growth in demographics like the US. The world for the most part will go through deflation for that reason. An example would be Japan they have tried for 25 years to create inflation with no luck. As soon as they quit printing the Yen the inflation stops. This is because they are old. When people reach the age of 60 they quit buying stuff.

6/6/16       #21: Interesting read about the future o ...
Family Man

Pat,
You are thinking too linear. Sure we can print, but it's only held up by faith. The world is pissed at us, often for good reason. There are countries right now undermining our reserve currency and want to see it fall- and I'm not talking middle east alone. China, Russia. To name a couple. You don't have to spend dollars to buy oil or wheat anymore and it is changing fast. China's gold is going up fast and it's treasury holdings are going down fast. Dollar ain't worth nothing once there is an alternative or faith is lost- and both are close.

And that doesn't even get into the fact that we are all interconnected to such an extreme that if Japan, Europe or China fail- and they are all close- they will take us with them (if they don't launch a war instead to stop the imploding). Being the least dirty turd in the turd bowl only works for so long.

You have too much faith in the intelligence of people that in 2005, 2006, 2007 and even 2008 were telling us that there was no housing crisis (and actually encouraging it), let alone had no idea what a derivative was. A centrally planned world does not work and God help us if we only get a depression to end all depressions instead of the world war to end all world wars.

I'd love to be wrong. And I'm enjoying life in the meantime and gladly taking people's tens of thousands of dollars to build a kitchen they don't use so they can impress friends they don't give a shit about, but in the meantime I'll also do what little a non oligarch can do to prepare his family for what is around the bend. For there will be war. As surely as there won't be a meaningful, long lasting housing boom or an economy boom and it surely wont be the demographics doing it. The only ones screwing enough to reproduce at growth rate are those on the government tit. Unless you are into government housing cabinets...good luck. Everyone else outside of some fundamentalists are having kids at such a meager rate we are Japan. Our only growth is in immigration and that will either stop or there will be war because of it. We are sitting on a powder keg and she's ready to blow. Enjoy today because it's a good as the overall economy and life in general is going to be for a long while.

I hope I'm wrong Pat, but I'd bet my life savings I'm not. My kids are still young. I know it's coming. I'd rather get it over with before they are fighting age. I'd rather my generation has to deal with it than force it upon them.

Sorry to monopolize the comments with my happy message. By all means do what you believe and put your chips were you want to bet them. I'll leave you to it now. I know you've read what you've needed to read Pat to come to your conclusions, so my message is more for some of the other guys who might be caused to dig a little deeper and come to their own conclusions. Thanks for not treating me hostile. Always enjoy it.

6/7/16       #22: Interesting read about the future o ...
Pat Gilbert

The BRICS is not going anywhere soon because:

Brazil's GDP is expected to shrink this year.

Russia is hurting because of the price of oil

India might do well in the future, IF they can get past the corruption and bureaucratic problems.

China has demographic problems of it's own (because of the one child policy)

South Africa's GDP is 1/57th of the US GDP.

Look at the chart showing the strength of the dollar.

I'm against a centralized government as it causes huge abuses of power.

The housing bubble (which left a mark on everyone) was IMO partially caused by the Federal Reserve Bank. And also by people using their HELOCS as ATMs. Also there were many exotic loans that were crazy.

The only problem with the derivatives is that the taxpayer bailed them out. If AIG wants to do something stupid, that is their business, and when they fail that is their business. Henry Paulsen was lying when he said the sky was falling.

I guess your main concern is the coming reckoning with the entitlements?

I hear ya, but a booming economy will help with that and don't sell technology short. And we still have the reserve currency status.

You do what you want. I'm suggesting that you look at the facts before you build the bomb shelter.


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6/7/16       #23: Interesting read about the future o ...
jonathan mahnken

I think that we can only tell what will happen in our lifetime, or maybe two. History repeats itself and most people generally dont pay attention to their history. how many "great civilizations" last more than a few hundred years without some sort of radical turn of events. We have been too fat and happy for too long.

Family man makes a great point that the rest of the world is basically pissed at us and would love to see us fall flat. Pat I know the numbers work but I think that the way housing works is going to change.

And Im sorry in my town, a house that needs to be burnt to the ground on a quarter acre lot will cost you over $400,000. Its not just because of our age that we arent buying houses. Im telling you all, as a kind of a young guy (33) lol, that I see more and more people my age that do not place any value in land/home ownership. Honestly they would rather have their funds free to travel/vacation/party and drive german cars. There is a great disrespect for this country by its younger citizens. No pride. No unity. We do work hard but mostly just to spend it on stuff made in other countries, and travel to other countries and spend our money there as well. I am but a humble cabinetmaker, lol so i do not fall into this category. Its the simple life for me ;)

6/7/16       #24: Interesting read about the future o ...
Pat Gilbert

I'm guessing you are in the Bay Area or similiar.

I think that has to do with historic low interest rates, Asian hot money, and IPO money.

The Fed balance sheet has something to do with this and the stock market.


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6/7/16       #25: Interesting read about the future o ...
Alan F.

FM

As a hypothetical, lets assume the worse and the world puts the US in chapter 7 as a country,
Scenario #1 we have an auction
Up for auction
Lot #1 All Government lands with oil, gas, timber, water reserves, Book value $0, auction value?
Lot #2 all national parks
Lot #3 all offshore mineral rights
Lot #4 all government office buildings
Lot# 5 all military equipment, satellites etc.

There is a fallacy in the budget process that puts 0 book value on assets.

Scenario #2, the US nationalizes all holdings and cancels all foreign debt; the world capital markets collapse.

6/7/16       #26: Interesting read about the future o ...
Family Man

Alan,
There are at least a dozen other scenarios also. But all of them will not play out as neat and clean as you make them sound.

Have you ever been in a country that is collapsing? As the bombs and machine guns are going off? When not only a government turns on it's citizens but citizens turn on one another? As kids beg for food in the street and young women will sell you anything for the cost of a sandwich? I have.

We in the US have been so insulated for almost all do not even know what they don't know. I know what I am saying sounds far fetched to most in the US, but to most of the world this is a known and accepted.

6/7/16       #27: Interesting read about the future o ...
Family Man

"pat" small "pg", I don't know anyone who is locked and loaded who looks forward to shooting anyone. Despite what you probably think of folks like me, most are very level headed, sober folks who know darn well what a bullet does to a human. Half my extended family supports Bernie. Last thing we want to do is fire at someone...anyone, let alone neighbors and family.

Any anxiousness you sense is not anxiousness to fight, but to get the inevitable over with. And very little of what I speak about has to do with weapons. It's 10% of the message, but more about getting your financial, provisions, plans and life right to withstand what's coming. So you can do right by your family, friends and neighbors during hard times. At some point you might have to fight, but I think we all hope it doesn't come to that especially the ones of us who see collapse as almost certainty.

My message has almost nothing to do with shooting people and a lot to do with being in a position to help people who are hungry, in need of shelter, hurting and scared (even the commies!) and expecting nothing in return.

6/7/16       #28: Interesting read about the future o ...
cabmaker

One of the structural problems with the concept of just requiring "the bums who are hungry get a job?" is that there simply aren't very many jobs that need to be done. If there were business would step in and raise wages to the level needed to fill the position.

We have reached a point now where the collateral damage associated with full employment is greater than the benefit derived from this. The very act of getting in your car, driving down the freeway to show up at a factory to produce some widget nobody gives a shit about costs all of us additional acidification in the ocean.
For those of us who like our mollusks this is a big deal. For everybody else that depends on protein from the ocean this is a very big deal.

Our nation is now so productive that we no longer need the goods and services that we have the capacity to produce. Robots will soon be the lowest cost producer (internal & external costs) of anything. All the Uber drivers in the world are going to have to find another way to augment their income when Apple shows up with a driverless car. Apple is going to use additive manufacturing to produce that car so these people too will become economic orphans.

We can disparage the poor all we want but corporate welfare in the form of tax incentives is a much bigger drain on the economy. The Wall Street journal ran an article just this week about all the welfare queens at Boeing, Google & General Electric.

Face it, this problem is only become more acute, not less. The sooner we respond to this the more options we will have to work with. It's going to hit your family doctor who has to compete with a BOT to interpret your symptoms. It's going to squish the poor investment banker and it's going to crush the lawyers. As soon as it starts to hit your family you will, I am sure, look at these things differently.

6/7/16       #29: Interesting read about the future o ...
Pat Gilbert

FM

that is not true either, see the chart.

DEFINITION of 'Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey - JOLTS' A survey done by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month.

BTW hopefully it is obvious when my impostor is posting and when I am.


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6/7/16       #30: Interesting read about the future o ...
Family Man

Pat, I don't know what you are speaking to but I will say it again to reinforce my point, absolutely anything from the the Bureau of Labor and Stats has zero credibility. None, zip, zero. Those books are so cooked they are smoking.

As to what kind of jobs we have had under this recovery. We gained not a single job that pays a family wage since 2008, but all of the gains are in bartenders, waitresses, etc. Sorry $8 an hour ain't starting a housing boom. In fact, those are the folks that are just too honest or too dumb, to realize they could be making far, far more living of the government and doing nothing like tens of millions of their fellow countrymen (legal and illegal). Immigration, free trade, big business owning the government, bloated out of control government and the banking sector (including the Fed Reserve front and center) are absolutely killing this country.

Which leads us to cabmaker's point. We need far low quality crap in our lives and get back to quality made in America goods even if we have less of them. I don't buy the environmental reasons in the US (very much do in China, etc), but there is something to be said for things made local and to high quality that don't get thrown out every 90 days but last a lifetime.

There are few things more harmful to society than humans who have too much time on their hands. Your robot scenario is a worse outcome that even I am painting- it'll be ugly. And robots have to run on something. Electricity believe it or not is greener than fossil fuels. Your green scenario will be an environmental nightmare on top of the societal nightmare.

6/7/16       #31: Interesting read about the future o ...
Pat Gilbert

When you deny the BLS you denying all facts related to Labor.

You might be referring to David Stockmans Breadwinner jobs? The problem with that is that he does not consider demographics. Additionally he does not take into account the hangover from 2008.

Look at the BLS chart it is not bullshit, the unemployment numbers are the lowest there have been in this business cycle.

Additionally look at the JOLTS data, at the quits numbers. Quits indicate that people are leaving for greener pastures.

Anyway take it or leave it, enjoy your bomb shelter...


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6/9/16       #32: Interesting read about the future o ...
Pat Gilbert

Another one to ignore.


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6/9/16       #33: Interesting read about the future o ...
Family Man

Pat,
I simply do have the time to go find the graphs that prove you are wrong- but they are there by the hundreds. I'm sure you are a ZeroHedger but there is half a dozen a day shared there that will paint the opposite picture of what you are painting.

At the end of the day each one of us as to gather the information (something most are not doing) and then decide what they are going to do with it. I think you missed the part of my message that says I am enjoying life in the meantime, just allocating my extra capital in a way that reflects my beliefs and expectations of what is around the corner. No living in a bomb shelter for me.

The last thing I am saying is you have to agree with me. I am just saying go spend six months gathering evidence and continue to analyze it as it comes in. I think the case is clear but I know I am in the minority. I have never been afraid of that.

6/9/16       #34: Interesting read about the future o ...
Pat Gilbert

Yup I was a ZH guy as well. Until I started looking at this stuff. I read David Stockman's book cover to cover, 800 pages of mind numbing information. BTW he is featured on ZH all the time.

The problem is they cherry pick stats to fit a narrative.

From my viewpoint you are NOT in the minority.

Economics 101 indicated that Stockman was wrong. Also Logan Mohtashami on face book has indicated an objective perspective.

I'm not aiming this data at you, your mind is made up. I'm thinking there are others who have swallowed the world is going to end trope as I did, that might benefit from a few facts.

6/9/16       #35: Interesting read about the future o ...
Alan F.

The world is always changing, different things fail or go by the side, other things pop up.

The one thing that is happening that is somewhat more unique than the past is the time for change is much more rapid with the advances in technology and this affects jobs and type of jobs, but we have more people and more people need places to live.

The middle class model based on a manufacturing job or a HS educated job being enough is going away.

How we transition the less educated into the workforce is the question. The educational model is way behind the current business model.

If we didn't have all the safety nets that came into play after 1929 the last "great" recession would have had millions living on the streets or in the woods.

If we know the statistics have assumptions that we disagree with then we make adjustments to what we do with the statistics, we don't throw them out.

A-

6/9/16       #36: Interesting read about the future o ...
Family Man

Pat,
Everybody cherry picks stats. Take just about anything in this world or out of it, there is always more than one side to the coin or story. And often times you can look at the same data and come to different conclusions based on the prism you are looking at it through.

I can tell you this, there is a reason that interest rates are at the lowest in the history of man's records- over 5,000 years. There is a reason the 10 year sits at 1.66 as of this morning and the Bund is setting fresh lows each day by a substantial margin. Don't even get me started on Japan.

I just drove through 2/3rd's of America a couple months ago. Outside of the booming city's- almost always a tech play (and I would argue a severe bubble)- like Seattle, San Fran, NY- rural, small town, and small city America is shuttered with OSB.

I don't have know that American's have a trillion dollars in credit card debt, that sub prime is back in a large way, that banks are more leveraged, that your BLS stats are seasonally and doublly seasonally adjusted and a million other facts that aren't known by the average business person let alone average American. I saw it with my own eyes. We are broke. We spent the kitty and our great grand children's kitty and made a bunch of enemy's doing it- inside and outside of the country.

Each has to make their own decision. Just get the real facts before doing it. Thanks Pat for the great dialogue. I'm bowing out and will let your charts have the day!

6/9/16       #37: Interesting read about the future o ...
Cabmaker

Alan,

You wrote: "How we transition the less educated into the workforce is the question."

This is a much bigger issue than just how we feed the lesser educated. Technological changes are putting even highly educated industries out to pasture. Lawyers and Doctors can now easily be replaced with a BOT that can do far more than they can, much quicker and more accurately too. The bulk of lawyer work consists of searching thousands and thousands of pages of data looking for an anomalous pattern. Computers can synthesize this much more quickly. Doctors collect symptoms, compare this with something they can remember reading and give you their best interpretation. The problem here is that the Doctor played golf on Sunday and missed out on some of the more recent journals of medicine. A BOT can grab billions of pieces of data, run the statistics and render a more reliable opinion.

(Google may even be working on a Pat Gilbert BOT as we speak.)

6/9/16       #38: Interesting read about the future o ...
TonyF

A Pat Gilbert BOT? With millions of graphs and published articles in a searchable database that can be called forth in a seemingly spontaneous timeframe?

How is that really different than Pat Gilbert :)

6/9/16       #39: Interesting read about the future o ...
Pat Gilbert

FM

There is NO danger of another bubble as there are no more exotic loans or HELOCS.

I may have a narrative, but I have posted 10 charts to your opinion and zero charts.

You are the one with the narrative.

BTW I would bet that I understand the ZH perspective better than you do.

6/9/16       #40: Interesting read about the future o ...
Pat Gilbert

RE : the bots, it is not going to happen.

They said the same about farmers, when farmers were about 65 percent of the population. Today the farmers are about 4 percent of the population.

Then. the argument goes that bots are going to do everthing. I don't believe this will happen. Today the US is a service provider. Manufacturing has gone to China and automation. The participants on this forum are more a service than a manufacturer.

The thing is somebody has to come up with the goals and that is not going to be a bot.

BTW they will never come up with a bot to replace me, because bots use too much emotion.

There probably needs to be more edjumication. But accordingly to this article 1/3 of the students with graduate degrees will not be able to get a job in their field.

IOW I thought think Mike Rowe has it right

I would add that half of the education is learning the dicipline.

Graduate degrees may be a waste.

6/9/16       #41: Interesting read about the future o ...
Pat Gilbert

FM

One more thing the interest rate is organic to the economy because of demographics.

I thought this was surely caused by the Fed up until recently. But the fact is the Fed has raised the interest rates several times in the past few years.

A case can be made that Greenspan lowered the rates in 2001 through 2004.
To tell the truth I'm not sure if this contributed to the housing bubble or not.

But the main thing we are looking at now is a secular (over an long time period) world wide deflation. Again this is because the world is getting old.


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