Woodworking Business

You are not logged in. [ Login ] Why log in
(NOTE: Login is not required to post)

An housing expert talking about home sales

11/22/16       
Pat Gilbert

Logan Mohtashami talking about home sales. Informative about predicting cabinet sales.

Expert speaking about home sales

11/22/16       #2: An housing expert talking about hom ...
Saul Goodman Member

Another opinion from another expert.
Happy Thanksgiving!

More About Housing

11/22/16       #3: An housing expert talking about hom ...
Pat Gilbert

I see I'm talking over your head Saul, stick with the cartoons...

11/23/16       #4: An housing expert talking about hom ...
TonyF

Three quotations:

"Economists exist solely to give creedence to astrologers". Robert Reich, economics professor and former Secretary of Labor.

"The best thing about the future is that it comes one day at a time". Abraham Lincoln, former US President.

"Maturity is knowing that just because someone disagrees with you doesn't mean he's a horses ass". Harry S. Truman, former US President

I suppose that housing sales forecasts are predictive of future cabinet sales in the same way that automobile sales forecasts are predictive of future tire sales, except that there is no safety inspection process in place to force you to buy new cabinets.

Your actual sales will continue to be based on the buying whims of the general public.

I imagine that economists are trained in their vocation and there is some rational and educated basis for their forecasts. But they are only opinions, and since economists disagree on the same topic, these opinions should be taken with due skepticism.

Much like everyone on this forum, I suppose the nice way to say it is that opinions are like chins, everybody has one. (Some people have two.)

My own indicator of sales is when someone signs my proposal and gives me a deposit check. I continue to promote sales, and base my long term planning on my own sales history and gut feeling about the near future, rather than get excited about the forecast of some economist that I may or may not agree with.

Try to play nice with others, Pat.

TonyF

11/23/16       #5: An housing expert talking about hom ...
Pat Gilbert

Robert Reich is literally a laughing stock.

Abraham Lincoln is the guy who got over 650,000 Americans killed.

Truman is the guy who unnecessarily killed hundreds of thousands in Japan.

My interest in this subject was piqued by the Wood Web.

I am and do "play nice" on this forum.

I find this stuff useful, you don't, others may?

11/23/16       #6: An housing expert talking about hom ...
Pat Gilbert

Another point

Prediction = Control

If you can predict when a car will turn, speed up, slow down. You control a car.

People get upset when they lose control.

Quite a few people were upset with the economy in 2007.

I find it useful to understand the dynamics that were in play in 2008 and now.

Your point is also well taken. Which I take as focus on what you can control and do the work.

11/23/16       #7: An housing expert talking about hom ...
David R Sochar Member

Prediction does not equal control.
I can predict you will respond, but I cannot control what you will say.

I don't think there is much linkage at all between the two.

It certainly is advisable to try to glean a look into any of the various crystal balls available for gazing, but none is within your control. If you follow what they say, you still will not control the environment within which you work.

I have found that at the level most small shops operate on, there is much more advantage to a good cleaning and waxing of the equipment than there is in reading yet another economic forecast. I can affect my business much more than those forecasts can.

Now, I agree that those outside events can wreak havoc with my business, but I can't accurately predict them, and I sure can't control them.

11/23/16       #8: An housing expert talking about hom ...
dean c

isn't it more true that control= prediction?

11/23/16       #9: An housing expert talking about hom ...
Pat Gilbert

Dave

"I can predict you will respond, but I cannot control what you will say."

That is not prediction, I would bet that you can predict with great accuracy how long a project will take.

Yet more than a few predicted the housing crash and the great depression.

A while back everyone believed the doom and gloom would go on in perpetuity, including me. It affected many people's thinking.

Dean

I could see it both ways.

11/29/16       #10: An housing expert talking about hom ...
antss

Truman didn't unnecessarily kill scores of Japanese . It was absolutely necessary.

Lincoln didn't get those fellas killed all by himself. He had a lot of help, and if not for the actions others his decesion that caused said carnage wouldn't even have been necessary.

Many historians believe no one was more internally conflicted or distraught about that war than Lincoln himself. But it was necessary given the situation of the day.

Cabinet sales will rise with increasing home sales. My eight year old can articulate that cause/effect relationship.

What he cannot do, like the rest of the talking heads is predict how much , if any , the local cabinet guy or the domestic factory will benefit from this activity.

Knowing a pie will be available is one thing, obtaining a slice is an entirely different endeavor.

11/29/16       #11: An housing expert talking about hom ...
Pat Gilbert

The guy speaking in the video predicts how many very accurately year after year.

The rest is my own observation and it definitely disagrees with the stories they tell in public schools. I take offense to people getting killed for wacko ideas. The facts are the over 650,000 Americans got killed doing Lincoln's bidding and 200,000 got killed doing Truman's bidding.

12/25/16       #12: An housing expert talking about hom ...
The skeptic

You would probably have just as much luck planning your vacations around the weather forecast's of the farmers almanac.

12/25/16       #13: An housing expert talking about hom ...
Pat Gilbert

Merry Christmas everyone.


Post a Response
  • Notify me of responses to this thread
  • Subscribe to email updates on this Forum
  • To receive email notification of additions to this forum thread,
    enter your name and email address, and then click the
    "Keep Me Posted" button below.

    Please Note: If you have posted a message or response,
    do not submit this request ... you are already signed up
    to receive notification!

    Your Name:
    E-Mail Address:
    Enter the correct numbers into the field below:
     

    Date of your Birth:



    Return to top of page

    Buy & Sell Exchanges | Forums | Galleries | Site Map

    FORUM GUIDELINES: Please review the guidelines below before posting at WOODWEB's Interactive Message Boards (return to top)

  • WOODWEB is a professional industrial woodworking site. Hobbyist and homeowner woodworking questions are inappropriate.
  • Messages should be kept reasonably short and on topic, relating to the focus of the forum. Responses should relate to the original question.
  • A valid email return address must be included with each message.
  • Advertising is inappropriate. The only exceptions are the Classified Ads Exchange, Machinery Exchange, Lumber Exchange, and Job Opportunities and Services Exchange. When posting listings in these areas, review the posting instructions carefully.
  • Subject lines may be edited for length and clarity.
  • "Cross posting" is not permitted. Choose the best forum for your question, and post your question at one forum only.
  • Messages requesting private responses will be removed - Forums are designed to provide information and assistance for all of our visitors. Private response requests are appropriate at WOODWEB's Exchanges and Job Opportunities and Services.
  • Messages that accuse businesses or individuals of alleged negative actions or behavior are inappropriate since WOODWEB is unable to verify or substantiate the claims.
  • Posts with the intent of soliciting answers to surveys are not appropriate. Contact WOODWEB for more information on initiating a survey.
  • Excessive forum participation by an individual upsets the balance of a healthy forum atmosphere. Individuals who excessively post responses containing marginal content will be considered repeat forum abusers.
  • Responses that initiate or support inappropriate and off-topic discussion of general politics detract from the professional woodworking focus of WOODWEB, and will be removed.
  • Participants are encouraged to use their real name when posting. Intentionally using another persons name is prohibited, and posts of this nature will be removed at WOODWEB's discretion.
  • Comments, questions, or criticisms regarding Forum policies should be directed to WOODWEB's Systems Administrator
    (return to top).

    Carefully review your message before clicking on the "Send Message" button - you will not be able to revise the message once it has been sent.

    You will be notified of responses to the message(s) you posted via email. Be sure to enter your email address correctly.

    WOODWEB's forums are a highly regarded resource for professional woodworkers. Messages and responses that are crafted in a professional and civil manner strengthen this resource. Messages that do not reflect a professional tone reduce the value of our forums.

    Messages are inappropriate when their content: is deemed libelous in nature or is based on rumor, fails to meet basic standards of decorum, contains blatant advertising or inappropriate emphasis on self promotion (return to top).

    Libel:   Posts which defame an individual or organization, or employ a tone which can be viewed as malicious in nature. Words, pictures, or cartoons which expose a person or organization to public hatred, shame, disgrace, or ridicule, or induce an ill opinion of a person or organization, are libelous.

    Improper Decorum:   Posts which are profane, inciting, disrespectful or uncivil in tone, or maliciously worded. This also includes the venting of unsubstantiated opinions. Such messages do little to illuminate a given topic, and often have the opposite effect. Constructive criticism is acceptable (return to top).

    Advertising:   The purpose of WOODWEB Forums is to provide answers, not an advertising venue. Companies participating in a Forum discussion should provide specific answers to posted questions. WOODWEB suggests that businesses include an appropriately crafted signature in order to identify their company. A well meaning post that seems to be on-topic but contains a product reference may do your business more harm than good in the Forum environment. Forum users may perceive your references to specific products as unsolicited advertising (spam) and consciously avoid your web site or services. A well-crafted signature is an appropriate way to advertise your services that will not offend potential customers. Signatures should be limited to 4-6 lines, and may contain information that identifies the type of business you're in, your URL and email address (return to top).

    Repeated Forum Abuse: Forum participants who repeatedly fail to follow WOODWEB's Forum Guidelines may encounter difficulty when attempting to post messages.

    There are often situations when the original message asks for opinions: "What is the best widget for my type of shop?". To a certain extent, the person posting the message is responsible for including specific questions within the message. An open ended question (like the one above) invites responses that may read as sales pitches. WOODWEB suggests that companies responding to such a question provide detailed and substantive replies rather than responses that read as a one-sided product promotion. It has been WOODWEB's experience that substantive responses are held in higher regard by our readers (return to top).

    The staff of WOODWEB assume no responsibility for the accuracy, content, or outcome of any posting transmitted at WOODWEB's Message Boards. Participants should undertake the use of machinery, materials and methods discussed at WOODWEB's Message Boards after considerate evaluation, and at their own risk. WOODWEB reserves the right to delete any messages it deems inappropriate. (return to top)


  • Forum Posting Help
    Your Name The name you enter in this field will be the name that appears with your post or response (return to form).
    Your Website Personal or business website links must point to the author's website. Inappropriate links will be removed without notice, and at WOODWEB's sole discretion. WOODWEB reserves the right to delete any messages with links it deems inappropriate. (return to form)
    E-Mail Address Your e-mail address will not be publicly viewable. Forum participants will be able to contact you using a contact link (included with your post) that is substituted for your actual address. You must include a valid email address in this field. (return to form)
    Subject Subject may be edited for length and clarity. Subject lines should provide an indication of the content of your post. (return to form)
    Thread Related Link and Image Guidelines Thread Related Links posted at WOODWEB's Forums and Exchanges should point to locations that provide supporting information for the topic being discussed in the current message thread. The purpose of WOODWEB Forums is to provide answers, not to serve as an advertising venue. A Thread Related Link that directs visitors to an area with inappropriate content will be removed. WOODWEB reserves the right to delete any messages with links or images it deems inappropriate. (return to form)
    Thread Related File Uploads Thread Related Files posted at WOODWEB's Forums and Exchanges should provide supporting information for the topic being discussed in the current message thread. Video Files: acceptable video formats are: .MOV .AVI .WMV .MPEG .MPG .MP4 (Image Upload Tips)   If you encounter any difficulty when uploading video files, E-mail WOODWEB for assistance. The purpose of WOODWEB Forums is to provide answers, not to serve as an advertising venue. A Thread Related File that contains inappropriate content will be removed, and uploaded files that are not directly related to the message thread will be removed. WOODWEB reserves the right to delete any messages with links, files, or images it deems inappropriate. (return to form)