Woodworking Business

You are not logged in. [ Login ] Why log in
(NOTE: Login is not required to post)

Don't look at this chart David, everyone else might find it interesting

2/8/17       
Pat Gilbert

On the horizon:


View higher quality, full size image (960 X 721)

2/10/17       #2: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
Matt Calnen

So what would be the best stocks to buy to take advantage of what we know is coming? Housing commodities, Pultie homes, Owens Corning?

2/10/17       #3: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
Pat Gilbert

Yes, and consult your financial advisor.

2/10/17       #4: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
cabmaker

You should invest in the Wall Street Ral Investment Trusts that are buying up single family residences for the rental market.

Pat is right about these kids coming of age and wanting to live in houses with back yards for their kids to play in. The problem is they won't be able to afford it. Like a starfish slithering across the mudflats these REITS will latch onto every clam, suck the life out of it then move to the next clam.

The pile of money this group has to invest just doubles every two years. It has to find a home because nobody wants to just stuff it in their mattress. Fannie Mae started last month to provide insurance warranting rental income property. It used to be you could only get this for owner occupied real estate. The thinking was this would help minimize risk for people who put up the cash to underwrite these mortgages. Since there is no down side risk anymore to investing in rental property ALL property will eventually become rental property.

Another possible investment might be in electrical contracting companies. Somebody is going to have to maintain those double rows of electric fence surrounding these new homes. We also need to keep the server farms up and running to archive all these selfies.

2/10/17       #5: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
Pat Gilbert

I want to retract my advise, I'm not saying anything about investing.

There are an infinite amount of moving parts in the stock market.

I only brought this up for loosely projecting sales

2/10/17       #6: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
Matt Calnen

Pat, the one stable I had in my life just went wishewashy. What do you mean man! I look to you for guidance in an uncertain world.

2/10/17       #7: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
Pat Gilbert

Sarcasm duly noted.

The economy is going to boom.

Read up on investing I recommend a random walk down wall street.

Pro tip don't look for stock advice on a woodworking site.

2/13/17       #8: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
David R Sochar Member

Pat - I just woke up. Your chart just put me right to sleep. I think while I was asleep I might have changed made a bunch of investments, based on data from your charts and investment advice.

But seriously, my position is often that these macro concepts are interesting if you like that sort of thing. But when it comes down to a small shop (less that 50), an owner or manager's time is far better spent in sales calls, walking the floor looking for waste of any kind, formulating close strategy for the next 6 months to a year, meeting new vendors, etc, etc.

In my 2 man shop, in my life, any spare time I have is certainly not spent looking at economic forecasts. Far better to go clean the shop, trash that plywood corner, change knives and wax the benches and machines. If I want to befuddle myself, I read up on the latest developments coming from Cern and the related physics news.

2/13/17       #9: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
Pat Gilbert

To each his own, I have 2 siblings with degrees in physics now that is a snore fest...

It is useful to me as you don't see things coming with too narrow of a focus. Not having a macro perspective has certainly hit me in the face. Not academic at all.

But a lot of what I look at is absolutely on a micro level, to think they are not 2 sides of the same coin is specious.

OTOH there is so much false information out there it gives the subject a bad name.

2/13/17       #10: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
Alan F.

After the election results I figured over the next few years there would be some money to be made either shorting the market or investing or buying real estate.

My house was paid off so I took a 70% cash out refi and put the money in a variety of bond funds with my advisor who is also the guy the does the company 401k.

If nothing happens I will either use the interest to pay the loan or do some work around the house and then pay it down or hang on to it for tough times.

I just wanted to be in a position to take advantage of a growth market or take advantage of opportunities. In 2006 I had a home equity line of credit and as going to use it in 2008 or 2009 and they cut it off unless I wanted to get a new appraisal. This time I decided I would control the cash.

I have no idea what's going to happen but I feel like we will see a market that we haven't seen in 20-30 years and if an opportunity that makes sense is there I want to take advantage of it.

2/13/17       #11: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
Pat Gilbert

FWIW I'm not saying anything about the stock market.

This information is pertinent to future economic activity. It is based on the demographic increase in the population of the 25-35 year olds as this is when most people buy their 1st house.

IMO the stock market may be up because of an increase in the money supply which also has also shown up in some housing markets.

Who is president has little to do with the economy. Unless the president makes investors nervous.

One area that will grow long term is home building because of the demographics. And because home sales are as low as they were in the early 60s

2/13/17       #12: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
cabmaker

Pat,

Your statistics are accurate insofar as they reflect trends in age demographics. It is a big leap, however, to equate this increase in population group with an increase in home ownership. Just because these Millennials are of an age where historically they want to settle down and buy houses does not mean they will necessarily have the money to do so.

There will indeed be a lot more investment in housing but this will be housing that is specifically built for the rental market and owned by Real Estate Investment Groups (i.e., pension funds etc).

You need to read the Wall Street Journal more often. They write a lot about who specifically is investing in what.

As I mentioned before, Fannie Mae is now insuring mortgages for rental property. There is no risk for this type of investment anymore.

2/13/17       #13: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
Pat Gilbert

Come on, i'm talking about some things that are as old as time.

2/14/17       #14: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
Pat Gilbert

No matter what the WSJ says it is not going to subvert this

We have gone through a huge swing of the pendulum fueled by a credit bubble. Then the pendulum swung back for almost 10 years. It left a mark, more on some of us than others but the reality is that it is/going to be picking up.

The reason most of us did as well as we did was because of the baby boom. The next boom is going to take the population from 325 million to 425 million, you do the math.

For sure this boom will be different than past booms as all economic recoveries recover in different ways. Maybe manufactured homes will finally be the best way to do it, maybe the cabinets will be part of the home factory. Robotics will figure into it strongly. We have comparative low inflation now compared to the 70s it figures to hold that way if you look at the trend, that means that the prices will stay relatively low. Largely because of the lower cost of oil.For now there is a shortage of labor which means that wages are going to be going up. Which will increase the demand to automate.


View higher quality, full size image (911 X 662)

2/14/17       #15: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
Pat Gilbert

This one shows that the interest rate trend is has been going down for a long time


View higher quality, full size image (908 X 662)

2/15/17       #16: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
Pat Gilbert

This one indicates Tim's mentor, WSJ, be wrong.


View higher quality, full size image (600 X 522)

2/15/17       #17: Don't look at this chart David, eve ...
Pat Gilbert

Source of 1st chart easier to read

Source of 1st chart


Post a Response
  • Notify me of responses to this thread
  • Subscribe to email updates on this Forum
  • To receive email notification of additions to this forum thread,
    enter your name and email address, and then click the
    "Keep Me Posted" button below.

    Please Note: If you have posted a message or response,
    do not submit this request ... you are already signed up
    to receive notification!

    Your Name:
    E-Mail Address:
    Enter the correct numbers into the field below:
     

    Date of your Birth:



    Return to top of page

    Buy & Sell Exchanges | Forums | Galleries | Site Map

    FORUM GUIDELINES: Please review the guidelines below before posting at WOODWEB's Interactive Message Boards (return to top)

  • WOODWEB is a professional industrial woodworking site. Hobbyist and homeowner woodworking questions are inappropriate.
  • Messages should be kept reasonably short and on topic, relating to the focus of the forum. Responses should relate to the original question.
  • A valid email return address must be included with each message.
  • Advertising is inappropriate. The only exceptions are the Classified Ads Exchange, Machinery Exchange, Lumber Exchange, and Job Opportunities and Services Exchange. When posting listings in these areas, review the posting instructions carefully.
  • Subject lines may be edited for length and clarity.
  • "Cross posting" is not permitted. Choose the best forum for your question, and post your question at one forum only.
  • Messages requesting private responses will be removed - Forums are designed to provide information and assistance for all of our visitors. Private response requests are appropriate at WOODWEB's Exchanges and Job Opportunities and Services.
  • Messages that accuse businesses or individuals of alleged negative actions or behavior are inappropriate since WOODWEB is unable to verify or substantiate the claims.
  • Posts with the intent of soliciting answers to surveys are not appropriate. Contact WOODWEB for more information on initiating a survey.
  • Excessive forum participation by an individual upsets the balance of a healthy forum atmosphere. Individuals who excessively post responses containing marginal content will be considered repeat forum abusers.
  • Responses that initiate or support inappropriate and off-topic discussion of general politics detract from the professional woodworking focus of WOODWEB, and will be removed.
  • Participants are encouraged to use their real name when posting. Intentionally using another persons name is prohibited, and posts of this nature will be removed at WOODWEB's discretion.
  • Comments, questions, or criticisms regarding Forum policies should be directed to WOODWEB's Systems Administrator
    (return to top).

    Carefully review your message before clicking on the "Send Message" button - you will not be able to revise the message once it has been sent.

    You will be notified of responses to the message(s) you posted via email. Be sure to enter your email address correctly.

    WOODWEB's forums are a highly regarded resource for professional woodworkers. Messages and responses that are crafted in a professional and civil manner strengthen this resource. Messages that do not reflect a professional tone reduce the value of our forums.

    Messages are inappropriate when their content: is deemed libelous in nature or is based on rumor, fails to meet basic standards of decorum, contains blatant advertising or inappropriate emphasis on self promotion (return to top).

    Libel:   Posts which defame an individual or organization, or employ a tone which can be viewed as malicious in nature. Words, pictures, or cartoons which expose a person or organization to public hatred, shame, disgrace, or ridicule, or induce an ill opinion of a person or organization, are libelous.

    Improper Decorum:   Posts which are profane, inciting, disrespectful or uncivil in tone, or maliciously worded. This also includes the venting of unsubstantiated opinions. Such messages do little to illuminate a given topic, and often have the opposite effect. Constructive criticism is acceptable (return to top).

    Advertising:   The purpose of WOODWEB Forums is to provide answers, not an advertising venue. Companies participating in a Forum discussion should provide specific answers to posted questions. WOODWEB suggests that businesses include an appropriately crafted signature in order to identify their company. A well meaning post that seems to be on-topic but contains a product reference may do your business more harm than good in the Forum environment. Forum users may perceive your references to specific products as unsolicited advertising (spam) and consciously avoid your web site or services. A well-crafted signature is an appropriate way to advertise your services that will not offend potential customers. Signatures should be limited to 4-6 lines, and may contain information that identifies the type of business you're in, your URL and email address (return to top).

    Repeated Forum Abuse: Forum participants who repeatedly fail to follow WOODWEB's Forum Guidelines may encounter difficulty when attempting to post messages.

    There are often situations when the original message asks for opinions: "What is the best widget for my type of shop?". To a certain extent, the person posting the message is responsible for including specific questions within the message. An open ended question (like the one above) invites responses that may read as sales pitches. WOODWEB suggests that companies responding to such a question provide detailed and substantive replies rather than responses that read as a one-sided product promotion. It has been WOODWEB's experience that substantive responses are held in higher regard by our readers (return to top).

    The staff of WOODWEB assume no responsibility for the accuracy, content, or outcome of any posting transmitted at WOODWEB's Message Boards. Participants should undertake the use of machinery, materials and methods discussed at WOODWEB's Message Boards after considerate evaluation, and at their own risk. WOODWEB reserves the right to delete any messages it deems inappropriate. (return to top)


  • Forum Posting Help
    Your Name The name you enter in this field will be the name that appears with your post or response (return to form).
    Your Website Personal or business website links must point to the author's website. Inappropriate links will be removed without notice, and at WOODWEB's sole discretion. WOODWEB reserves the right to delete any messages with links it deems inappropriate. (return to form)
    E-Mail Address Your e-mail address will not be publicly viewable. Forum participants will be able to contact you using a contact link (included with your post) that is substituted for your actual address. You must include a valid email address in this field. (return to form)
    Subject Subject may be edited for length and clarity. Subject lines should provide an indication of the content of your post. (return to form)
    Thread Related Link and Image Guidelines Thread Related Links posted at WOODWEB's Forums and Exchanges should point to locations that provide supporting information for the topic being discussed in the current message thread. The purpose of WOODWEB Forums is to provide answers, not to serve as an advertising venue. A Thread Related Link that directs visitors to an area with inappropriate content will be removed. WOODWEB reserves the right to delete any messages with links or images it deems inappropriate. (return to form)
    Thread Related File Uploads Thread Related Files posted at WOODWEB's Forums and Exchanges should provide supporting information for the topic being discussed in the current message thread. Video Files: acceptable video formats are: .MOV .AVI .WMV .MPEG .MPG .MP4 (Image Upload Tips)   If you encounter any difficulty when uploading video files, E-mail WOODWEB for assistance. The purpose of WOODWEB Forums is to provide answers, not to serve as an advertising venue. A Thread Related File that contains inappropriate content will be removed, and uploaded files that are not directly related to the message thread will be removed. WOODWEB reserves the right to delete any messages with links, files, or images it deems inappropriate. (return to form)