DS,
I always found you to be an honest and fair man. We didn't always see eye to eye on things but I genuinely like and respect you.
One thing we approach differently is a our level of preparedness. While you have several strengths I will never have one weakness I thought you always had was not being able to see what was likely around the bend despite the signs being all around. We also had a different set of metrics on what we valued. Some of our differences in what we are seeing boils down to these, some I can't explain other then we are seeing different things. Maybe due to location and those around us but probably just as much due to those metrics.
I do think your view is slanted because for you things are good right now for your business. I remember like yesterday leaning on Uwe's bench with what I would later learn was the smell of MDF with both of us in polo shirts at my initial interview- all was roses you said with a ton of work- yet a few months later the whole crew was laid off and you were giving us a talk as a team about debt. Like I said, I like and respect you, but you were always too in the moment. You have a calmer demeanor and a higher risk appetite, so despite doing very well, I know I will never have the upside you do in business. However, I always felt you did not quite dig deep enough to realize what was going on around you and got hit a lot harder and by surprise for things that weren’t that hard to miss.
Despite, my many faults I saw 2008 coming and was prepared for it. I am not sure of the timing but I guarantuee there is another much harder downturn coming in the not so distant future that will be harder then 2000/2001 & 2008/2009.
If I can tackle this one by one:
First, I'm not advocating for civil war. I'm merely stating it is very likely coming and want to be prepared. The signs are all around- not just on every media outlet no matter their skew but just by talking to everyday average folks. Including in your county. I can turn on "mainstream" outlets and there is talk of ‘is a civil war possible?’ You can find ten such articles a week without even looking. Go down to the iron skillet over breakfast and ask folks what they think.
Speaking of that county, was it not a few miles from your shop where a mall was shot up within the last year? What does thriving mean? I see just bars and pawnshops when I drive through my hometown. How many drive bys a year in MV? Gangs a problem at all? What do the lines at the food banks look like? I don’t talk much with my old classmates but those I have heard from are struggling mightily in that valley.
If the public school system is thriving why do you not have an abundance of workers? Are these kids graduating well learned, mature, emotionally stable, sober and able to be productive members of society and keep society going? Do they get married, stay married, have children and raise families? Do your girls like having boys being able to use their restroom?
Why is it if everything is golden that Trump is president? Why is it if everything is golden that something like 75% say the country is headed in the wrong direction? Why are there physical confrontations at political rallies weekly? Why are there police officers being gunned down in the street? Ferguson? Baltimore?
DS, the thin veneer of good you see around you is held together by trillions of printed money and it is more precarious now than it was in December 2006. And we are out of ammo financially to keep that veneer going, all the while the lines are drawn between tribes-racially, economically, politically and spiritually and they are all red hot mad. Don’t forget that in life the middle coasts as is steered and the agenda is set by those 20% on each edge who are setting and driving an agenda. You always struck me as a man who just wanted to make a good living and see his wife and kids happy and was happy enough as long as that was taking place. Problem is there are forces on each side of you who care very deeply about the future and are fighting over it. They have irreconcilable differences of what this country is to be and they are willing to fight over it. And then there are outside forces at work like debt and technology/AI that will have a hand to play in the outcome whether we want it or not.
I always liked you DS and respect what you have built. I’m appreciative for the opportunity you gave me. Ignore me, laugh at me, call me crazy but do it at your own risk. Put your ear to the ground and look up. It’s all around you. Seattle home prices will not go up for forever and neither do good times and peace last for forever. Maybe it is different this time, but that is always what they say right before it is not, isn’t it? Your valley is a picturesque as they come, absolutely beautiful. But then so is much of Europe and Gettysburg, and the ground will tell you what happened there if you only ask.
Good luck to you, your family and business. You are one of the good guys in my book and I wish you the best. I hope you are right, I’d enjoy that. Peace is much preferred. But I will prepare as if I am.