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Lack of workers holds back Utah's economy

5/21/17       
cabmaker

New York Times has interesting article to day about the shortage of workers across America. The unemployment rate in Utah is now 3.1%. They can raise wages all they want but the people available to hire simply aren't there.

Maybe now might be a good time to rethink some of our guest-worker policies. Imagine how hard it would be to run a hotel without immigrant labor.........

NY Times - Utah Labor

5/21/17       #2: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Leo G

Plenty of workers. It's that they all have college degrees and want $100K a year jobs to start.

5/21/17       #3: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
cabmaker

Dairy farmers can't pay $100K a year.
Neither can cabinet shop owners.

The viability of tax cuts being proposed by the Trump administration is predicated on growing the the GDP to 3%.
Without robotics (cow-milking machines) this is not going to be possible unless we can find a way to create more workers where they are needed.

Migrant workers are called migrant workers because they are willing to migrate for the work. The expectations of these college educated kids who want $100k is driven by a sense of entitlement. In this way they are similar to the unemployed man in Ohio who wants the jobs to come to him rather than him move to the jobs.

What happens if the only way to grow the economy is with robotics? What happens when the next downturn occurs? Who do you think will have the jobs then? The guy carrying a lunch box or the robot?

Who would you (CNC Cabinetshop Owners) employ?

5/21/17       #4: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Leo G

What I'm trying to say is that society is hell bent on telling everyone that they need to be college educated. These people usually get in debt and need jobs that pay that much just to break even 10 years down the road.

What the problem is, is that some of those people are just not college material AND they now discourage young people from wanting to get into the trades and other work. Telling them it is demeaning to work with your hands, that it's bad and you have to have a college education to be able to survive in the world.

What they have done is ruined the work base. They have effectively destroyed the work base for the jobs that need to be done. Someone has to do them and the college kids don't want them, nor can they find jobs that pay what they want.

The education system needs to be brought back in time to when we teach kids how to do lots of things. Lots of people enjoy working with their hands. Lots of people can have fulfilling careers doing these jobs. And frankly, there are lots of people who should just never go to college because they will forever be in debt because they are just not college material.

5/21/17       #5: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Matt Calnen

Well said Leo, I agree.

5/21/17       #6: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
cabmaker

Leo,

Why exactly are these kids not "college material"?

What are the attributes these people don't possess that might otherwise make them suitable to be "college material"?

How does the lack of these attributes hold them back in other aspects of their lives?

What would it take to inspire or instill these attributes in them?

Would more intellectual curiosity produce better welders or better cabinetmakers? With better critical thinking skills could they improve their own lives and by extension the lives of their co-workers?

5/21/17       #7: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Leo G

Come on Cabmaker. You and I know some people are just not college material. You want me to say it?

Some kids are just to stupid or not motivated enough to make it through the rigors of college. The ROI on their investment isn't worth it. There are kids who make it through the program and at the end the job recruiters pass them by.

Some of these kids could have made it as craftsman. Plumbers, electricians, woodworkers and such. If they went to trade school instead of college they might be better off.

And then there are others who are destined to be laborers.

And I'm not saying anything bad about this. We need them. We need all aspects of jobs to be filled so that society can function as it should. There are plenty of people who would fit into each and every one of those categories. Some may not like it, but then again, life isn't fair and everyone can't be a millionaire.

So are you telling me you think that all kids should go to college. None of them should think about working with their hands. The should all become some sort of a pencil pusher.

Who would do the jobs that need to be done. Are we to import for other countries, essentially low wage slaves to do the menial jobs? When we have plenty of people here who are fit for those jobs.

One of the things is the pay of those jobs. Sometimes, the crap work should be paid better. Sometimes not.

Another thing that is killing work is the higher forced minimum wage set by states and the govt. There are some jobs that are just not worth what the minimum wage is. And especially in the entry workforce. Kids these days don't want to climb the ladder of success. I know I climbed it. And I expected I had to. Start out mowing lawns and shoveling snow. Then work picking tobacco. Then get a job through the school job program. Then you find other work, and you keep climbing the ladder.

The kids these days want to start in the middle or the top. They don't want to do the climbing. An education is a good thing, but it is far from real world experience and when you step out of college you are stepping into the real world. And college is not the real world. Especially if you watch the news and see how kids act today.

5/22/17       #8: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
cabmaker

Leo,

I didn't say anything about whether or not every kid should go to college. What I said was that every kid SHOULD HAVE the attributes necessary to succeed in college.

What you really want is for them to have fire in their belly to succeed. What you want is people willing to walk across a desert with just a jug of water for a chance at a better life. These are the people who came to America to start a nation.

5/22/17       #9: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Paul Miller

Website: http://MCCWOODWORKING.COM

It is not going to get any easier to find help. There are 10,000 people in the Baby Boomer generation that are retiring everyday. That will add up to over 3.5 million people in a year. If you can not find enough help, limit your work by selecting the jobs that you want to do.

5/22/17       #10: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Leo G

Cab, there are only a few that have the fire in the belly to succeed. The rest just want a paycheck and are happy to work for someone else that pays it.

5/22/17       #11: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
David R Sochar Member

Compliments of Tom Rush, from 40 years ago:

Kids these days they don't value a dollar
Don't like chewing but they sure can swallow
Wasn't that way in my younger days
There's something wrong with kids these days

Times ain't now buddy like they used to be
Times ain't now buddy like they used to be
I'd have more fun but the women are so hard to please

"Kids These Days" Tom Rush

5/22/17       #12: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
John Moore

"They can raise wages all they want but the people available to hire simply aren't there."

That's nonsense. Raising wages will absolutely attract more hires.

I recently tried to hire a guy at $20. He said no. I raised my offer to $22 and he said yes. It's that simple.

If the demand for a product exceeds the supply, prices will rise. It's just a basic demand curve.

5/22/17       #13: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
cabmaker

John,

What do you think they'd have to pay some unemployed millworker from Ohio to make him come to Wenatchee Washington to pick apples?

Since there won't be any orchardists still in business next year what does that do for New Zealand orchardists?

5/22/17       #14: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Leo G

Don't worry about the apple pickers. They'll be replaced by robots.

5/22/17       #15: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
cabmaker

John,

You talk about simple demand curves as though they were really simple. Have you ever heard of something called "price elasticity of demand"?

Remember that we are not trying to optimize the world but rather our own little world. When your cabinets get too expensive because the shop down the road offers your guy $24 an hour and you now have to pay $26 you're going to be one of those guys that thinks $16 an hour picking apples looks pretty good.

The real problem will come from Leo's robot. Who's going to pay $16 per hour for an apple picker when you got a robot?

Maybe it would be better to let a guest-worker from some other company pick the apples. This is how Donald Trumps gets the housekeeping done for his hotels in Florida. I guess if he's cool with immigrant workers we should be too.

5/22/17       #16: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

People will have to pay more for their construction projects or they won't build them. Or they will scale them down or build them themselves. I'm okay with all those scenarios.

Those building those projects that get built will have to pay more to their labor. I'm very okay with that.

Sounds like a good problem to me. Sounds like winning!

5/22/17       #17: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
John Moore

Wage elasticity varies on the profession. The article cited referred to a roofing supply company. Cabmaker referenced apple pickers. All low wage work like that has a fairly elastic supply curve. You raise the wages and you get more labor.

And no, you don't need former plant workers from Ohio to pick apples in Washington. When you raise the wage of apple pickers in Washington, you get people who had been picking something else in California to go pick apples if they can make $1 more per hour.

Of course business owners are going to complain when we get to full employment and their wage costs start to rise. Tough luck. That's the free market. If they can't pay enough to attract good workers, that means the consumer is either willing to pay higher prices for the product they make OR they are more interested in other products.

The author of the article doesn't seem to understand that a free market where prices and wages float brings the highest value to the consumer. Enough whining from employers who don't get that they need to raise wages or can't grow. It's just the free market, man. Deal with it.

5/23/17       #18: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Adam B

" there are only a few that have the fire in the belly to succeed. The rest just want a paycheck and are happy to work for someone else that pays it."

What exactly is this statement trying to say? I am the general manager of the company I work for, been here 25 years as of this past February. Since I am not the one that signs the payroll check, does that mean I don't have fire in my belly?

Why is an employee viewed that much different than an individual that owns a business? Even though I have been at the same facility for 25 years I entered into a "business agreement" same as a business owner would. We negotiate the terms of employment, and if both sides agree, then we have a deal. Not much different than estimating a new kitchen for Mr & Mrs Smith. You show them what you have to offer along with a price. If both sides feel that the proposal is fair, then you agree to do business together.

I have a hard time whenever the discussion of employee wages comes up. If a business owner is running his company correctly, then he/she should never feel that they are "paying" for employees, or that it is costing them $xxx in salary etc. One could argue that the employee is providing a service and that the employer is returning to them a portion of the revenue that was generated by the employee. Whether it is picking apples, or designing and manufacturing a 50K house of woodwork the relationship between an employee & employer is similar in the sense that they agreed to the terms of said employment.

Sorry if seems that this response is hi-jacking the OP initial thoughts about lack of available workers, but I tend to agree with those above, if a fair deal is offered to both parties then the problem wouldn't seem so dire.

5/23/17       #19: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Leo G

Might just be fake news.

The New York Times Pushes Another Phony Labor Shortage

The New York Times Pushes Another Phony

5/23/17       #20: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
cabmaker

FamilyMan,

You need to get outside the movie in your head. Or maybe read a book sometime..

Tell us please how the elderly, infirm or destitute would build housing for themselves? Do you really think these people just need to "scale them down or build them themselves?"

This is utter pap.

5/23/17       #21: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
cabmaker

Leo,

Do you really want to compare the credentials of Breitbart News with the New York Times?

If Breitbart News recommends Gary Buse for President are you going to support him too?

5/23/17       #22: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

Tim,
This is what you cannot comprehend. I read for two hours a day or more. Several books a week. This week is Thomas Sowell.

Your arrogance is astounding and anytime you want to compare IQ's I'm more then happy. I'll spot you 15 points.

Yes, Breitbart is far and away more accurate today then the NYT. Half of America's believes this.

Tim, what business do the destitute have funding a construction project? The infirm? If the elderly have the money let them pay- and let them pay a wage that the guy doing it can live on.

You, the flag waving progressive, in a city that tout's a $15 minimum wage and marches in the street about income inequality, are you seriously complaining that the average man's wages are too high? You do realize you have become the enemy of the exact thing you think you believe in so many ways. Your ideology has become your god, to be served at all costs, facts be damned.

This is a good "problem", but we covered that in the last three posts you did on this.

5/23/17       #23: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Leo G

In some instances, absolutely. And lately it looks like they are becoming less trustworthy everyday.

5/23/17       #24: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
We're ALL Family Men

FamilyMan,

As I recall, you asked on this forum for a certain civility. You wanted to claim for yourself the nom de guerre "FamilyMan". You did it, ostensibly, to protect your family?

Why would you choose to address Cabmaker as "Tim"?

5/23/17       #25: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Paul Downs

@Cabmaker: I have to side with Breitbart and against the New York Times on this one. Breitbart provided credibly sourced data that shows a reasonable take on the story.

"There is not such thing as a shortage. There is only price." - some economist whose name I can't remember.

5/23/17       #26: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

Tim gets called Tim several times during each one of his monilogues at some point- by a few of us. We usually save it until after he has changed monikers a couple times and spouted something for the tenth time without answering a single question despite us answering his.

I brought it out a little early this time because for the fifth post in a row he has insulted my intelligence. Despite him not being tall enough for this ride, up until now I have never insulted his- but each man has his limits.

If his one argument was not that I & those like me are stupid, redneck, racist, homophobes I would have more patience with him.

I am glad to play civil, but the good guys don't win when they are the only one laying down their guns.

Respectfully to those reading and particularly Woodweb, Robert

5/23/17       #27: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Alan F.

This article is subscriber content, not sure if you can read it, basically construction cost with 100 as norm are up across the nation.
At the highest wage rates money is not solving the problem

Silicon Valley’slabor shortage

5/23/17       #28: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Alan F.

The chart is in this article


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Why the Bay Area's already-high construc

5/23/17       #29: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
We're ALL Family Men

Excellent article Alan.
I never see stories like that in Breitbart News.

It would appear that maybe the best way to make America great again would be to open up the borders to immigration?

What would happen if we embraced free trade?

5/23/17       #30: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Adam B

Both sides have a valid argument although Cabmaker needs to do a better job of stating his point without the condensing, there is no other answer tone.

Here in Minnesota we are also feeling the effects, we have had a help add posted for over 2 months, and nobody that has responded even has a woodworking background. Now could we ease the pain if we posted an add offering $50.00 an hour, probably. With that said, there is truly a shortage of skilled laborers. I have twin daughters that are juniors in high school. Not either of them, or the circle of friends they run with have had a single discussion with anyone in "authority" from the school district about any post grad options other than attending a 4 year college.

From the day our kids started kindergarten they have been pushed down a path that leads/prepares them for moving on from high school directly into college. There are so many opportunities out there that can be achieved by following a different path, but as of now, our kids are not aware of that.

There are millions of kids out there that may not be able to pass a physics class, or write a 10 page book report eloquently enough to succeed in college. These these are the same kids that I can trust to do my car repairs, plumbing, concrete, and many other tasks that I myself am not good at. We need to figure out a way to let these kids know that these are well paying, and quality traits they possess.

5/23/17       #31: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
We're ALL Family Men

Adam,

I think you meant condescension (sorry....I'm a dick......can't resist low hanging fruit)

Your point is well taken that we need people in the trades as much as we need people in the tech sector. That being said there is still no excuse for education systems that produce welders, plumbers and auto mechanics that can't "pass a physics class, or write a 10 page book report eloquently enough to succeed in college."

Education promotes critical thinking. Critical thinking leads to better choices. Better choices leads to better public policy.

Your daughter could have prepared to be an auto mechanic. That industry, however, is starting to look a little dicey. Ford Motor Company just announced a 10% reduction in it's global workforce. It's stock value has dropped 17% since just January of this year. Some of this reduction in employment has to do with trade policy but mostly it has to do with the existential crisis all auto manufacturers face today.

Technology is changing the world. In the same way the internet gave us the ability to only get the news from the sources we agree with it has created a niche industry called outrage. There are a lot of people whose only profession is outrage. If you can create a soundbite you can create a click and a click will create revenue.

Your daughters will be more prepared for the future if they go to college than if they learn how work with their hands. In the 1880's we needed people who could make a wagon wheel or build a wooden barrel that wouldn't leak. Today we need people who have science-technology-engineer & math skills.

Which gets us back to public policy.
Why is it acceptable for education systems to produce people who can't write a paper or don't enjoy reading books? Why would this not enhance the life of a butcher, baker or plumber?

Public policy should treat education like an investment in infrastructure. This should not be free and it should be high quality. We should have a system that allows anybody from any background to obtain a higher education.

In the ideal world this would require commitment. In this paradigm if you want a four year education you owe the state four years of work..........two before you commence your education and two after you have your degree. This could be a public-private partnership where industry could have some influence on the curriculum in exchange for funding and first crack at the kids when they graduate.

Public policy that treated education like an investment in infrastructure would enhance everybody's lives and benefit everybody as well. There are a lot of kids in this country that are very very bright but eschew further education because they simply cannot afford it. The Lean People talk about the 8th waste of not utilizing talent. Our nation needs this talent.

No single cabinet shop could afford to create an education system like this to produce quality cabinetmakers but a public-private partnership could. Somewhere along the way these students could also be introduced to John Steinbeck or Mark Twain and maybe they would develop an appreciation for perspective or at least an appreciation for a good book.

5/23/17       #32: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Adam B Member

We're ALL Family Men,

You make some very good points, and I would love to live in your world. Unfortunately, it is not possible. We are all wired differently.

There are people on this earth that will never grasp fluid dynamics, molecular biology, atomic fusion etc.

My brother is the CFO for a very large commercial construction firm. A few weeks ago we were discussing this very topic about how to find and retain good workers.He told me about a guy that works for them. He is the type of guy that looks unkempt on a daily basis, speaks fluently in profanity and is absolutely the last person that you would want in front one of your clients on a multi-million job.

This is is same person that just has a god given knack for visualizing and understanding how to design and construct a 3 segment bridge unsupervised. This skill set is so necessary to their business that this guy in on yearly salary for over 120K per year, so that they can retain him as an asset. This guy "learned" these skills in the field, on the job, not in a classroom. I know this is an extreme example, but it is possible.

5/23/17       #33: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Pat Gilbert

Demographics, once again.

Another few years and the labor force will mature between 2020 and 2024.


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5/23/17       #34: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Pat Gilbert

As wages rise the construction industry will attract a lot of the worker force available.

Cabinet shops will continue to automate.

Remember we are coming from a record low in housing sales. As wages adjust so will the labor force.


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5/24/17       #35: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

While this rise is wages is a good, good thing. It is not nearly enough to keep pace with the inflation that has been and is coming. A better solution would be sound money, but that is a long, long way in the rear view mirror. The cost of living has gone WAY, WAY up- they just hide it very well with seasonally and multi seasonally adjusted, and then just plain changing the way things are calculated to hide the truth. But you cannot look at the overall numbers and not see that this is coming, must come- it is this or pitchforks.


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5/24/17       #36: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

Don't forget, only the very top 5-10% own any real stocks.


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5/24/17       #37: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

Just for Pat...was glad when you chimed in finally. Two or three days without you on such a post starting making me think something was wrong.


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5/24/17       #38: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
jason

The higher education system is now fundamentally an industry in pursuit of income, and is indifferent to the appropriateness of either quality or content of courses or suitability of applicants ability to complete these courses. there is almost an expectation in north america that after high school you automatically go into further education, industry does little to introduce those who would benefit from going straight into the workforce from doing just that. apprenticeships are few and far between, internships are for the most part exploitation, this idea that to achieve lifelong success requires further education
is irrelevant and motivated by industry that demands 1-2 years experience for entry level jobs (how does that work???) and a collage system that is indifferent to the success or failure of its candidates.

It is time that the education system is brought into the 21st century it can no longer operate with an expectation that once completed you go onto a career for life, the kids now need real world experience and learning, how to manage finances, how to mange in a world of job insecurity, and fundamentally structures that allow for multiple streams of ability and capability, so we can eliminate the failure/drop out tag that gets so easily applied to the non academic kids and that is in complete disregard of the facts that very bright kids can and often do end up labelled as failures because they do not fit the mold or are bored by an outdated system.

Attaching failure or drop out status to kids introduces crime, drug use and a whole host of negative behaviors into them at a formative time in their lives (I speak from experience)

Applying this non achiever failure status to our kids, because we are too indifferent to demand change, gives us exactly the kind of world we deserve, we produce offspring like its a right, often with little consideration as to our suitability to do so, we then hand them over to the state for the best part of their childhoods, we let them tell us what our kids are, and should expect from life, we review their report cards and reward or punish on the basis of the opinions of the often ineffectual state employees, we expect them to work their butts off and somehow know what the game is all about, and that if they get it wrong now, the whole of their future is to be based on the success or failure of childhood decisions.

Do we really want a generation of highly indebted kids with little chance owning property working in a gig economy unable to manage finances effectively (I live in a town dominated with pawn shops, money lenders, cash for gold, easy home) all preying on the low income and or poorly financially educated.

We are all still under the illusion that the next generation will somehow manage, we have stacked things so unfavorably against them I cannot see how? and in the long term we will all pay, just wait till you need health care nurses needing food stamps, doctors leaving education with 150k in debt, working 100 hour weeks.

I am not so sure that the next generation is the one with this entitled attitude, but mine and the baby boomers. We sit here complaining that the kids don't want to work, please enlighten me as to how they get a start? or see more than a bleak future of debt and insecurity?

Those of us in business ownership need to redress what we are really looking for in the future workforce and either provide for that or make those demands to government, rather than blaming these entitled millennials for lack of ambition as we see it.

I amazes me how dependent we are on the next generation, and how little we do to help, we should just keep exploiting them more now than we ever have. to maintain our entitlement.

but fear not the state will always have a solution, when there are too many mouths to feed or the prisons are full of errant teenagers, you just have to reduce the numbers, that's what war is for (but not for them or their kids) unless they can sit well behind the lines directing the killing.

big fat negative rant

5/24/17       #39: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

And lastly, why must wages go up? Because inflation is not at 2% liked the cooked books say, but at least 8%. If you do not understand the implications of this over a decade, two decades or more it is why every chart Pat puts up is cooked through and through to the core. The very information used to to make them are incorrect.


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5/24/17       #40: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
TheOtherFamilyMan

FamilyMan,

Did you know it is a fact that 43.6% of all statistics are made up on the spot?

5/24/17       #41: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Economist

According to THIS report:


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5/24/17       #42: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Pat Gilbert

I don't think M3 is particularly apt to inflation.

Inflation by definition is an increase in the money supply WITH an increase in the demand for money.

If you look at the velocity of money (the speed that money moves through the economy) the money supply is irrelevant.

You have to keep in mind that the dollar is the strongest currency in the world. IOW no matter how much of it they print, it is still in demand. A lot of the dollar's value correlates to the price of oil. So low inflation. (deflation)

A lot of the wealth comes from accumulated inflation (compounding). Which hurts people who are not invested.

I have had guys who were former drug addicts as workers. The commonality with them was that the way they quit the drugs was to quit hanging out with drug addicts.

The economy has a lot of moving parts. To sound it Occam's Razor is apt.

IOW quit looking at shadow stats, zero hedge, and any other adamant bears. It is ruining your perspective on business and life. I know because I was convinced of the same for a number of years.

A lot of the information I post comes from Logan Mohtashami.

https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami?hc_ref=NEWSFEED


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5/24/17       #43: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

Jason,
I agree. Higher Education has become, much like the public school system, more of an indoctrination system then a education system. Teaching us what to think, not how to to think. There are exclusions- STEM for example.

Pat,
How am I ruining my perspective on business and life? I read all perspectives, everything gets passed through my own filter of acquired knowledge and faith. My business is booming- with no debt. It provides me with an extremely nice living. I could not be happier in life. I spend my time away from my business as I wish. Spending a ton of time with my family, relaxing and traveling throughout the west.

By knowing the reality of the situation I am allowed to live, while I prepare. The preparing doesn't have to be an elephant in the room- it does not have to be sad, depressing. I have my faith and family and I do what I believe is best. I invest in things that give me great return and security- is that not what the most ardent bull does? While I know folks who are bears and miserable, I also know lots who are bulls and miserable. You read far too much into how this affects me negatively.
I have great hope for the days ahead, despite what I am almost certain is coming.

While I love the proverb, "A wise man sees troubling coming and prepares, a fool does nothing and suffers," I am more in agreement with the proverb writer's Descendant that says, "The truth shall set you free," rather the proverb writer who says "with much knowledge comes much sorrow." I think in the beginning he is right about the sorrow of the knowledge, and it can become fautiging if you aren't careful, but you have to move past that and once you have it doesn't have to define your life or outlook.

You seem to think that demographics are going to save us- I think they are a contributing factor to what is coming. You have to run with what you believe Pat. I will also. But don't worry about me, life is good.

5/24/17       #44: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Alan F.

42 jobs that are essential in San Francisco that don't pay enough to live there.

This is just a sad commentary

TEACHER:
Starting salary: $53,676

Up to: $74,799 in year 10

Source: San Francisco Chronicle

Math teacher and badminton coach Etoria Cheeks was homeless as she struggled to find an affordable living situation in San Francisco

Key jobs that don't pay enough to live

5/24/17       #45: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Pat Gilbert

FM i'm not saying how anybody should live. I'am saying to look.

Your inflation statistics are specious.

5/24/17       #46: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Pat Gilbert

Alan

San Francisco is an anamoly.

The I.P.O. money inflates housing costs.

In addition regulations and the NIMBY mentality restricts building.

Also Chinese hot money comes into the area.

The solution is fewer regulations and increased wages.

5/24/17       #47: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Economist

Pat,

San Francisco is not an anomaly at all.
It may be an archetype but this is just relative.

The kids graduating from high school in FamilyMan's village don't have a prayer of buying a home in that rural county either.

You are right about the wages, however. Unless we want to live in a society of feral children we need to educate them. Education needs to be a priority and treated like an investment in infrastructure.

We need to redirect the dumb-ass funding for a wall between the United States and Mexico and use it to fund some experimental academies. We need another Manhattan Project but this time use it to learn how to build universities and how to fund scholarships for those universities.

5/24/17       #48: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Pat Gilbert

Too much yik yak

Go to a cost of living calculator and compare SF to other areas like Spokane or Dallas or or

The diff is the cost of housing.

5/24/17       #49: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
jason

It's time we all took back control,

This time though we should not be again waiting for the young to lead the protests as has been the case in the past, unfortunately for us though any possibility of that is now slight as the indebtedness that keeps us in line is now a gift to the young in return for their education, trapped day one into a system that offers nothing but bleeding every cent out of them till they drop dead, all for the benefit of a very small percentage of society.

Our generation of tax paying mortgaged and indebted adults has now the responsibility to act, no bloodshed no rioting just withdraw payments to the system, stop the credit card payments, the mortgage and taxes.
and see how quickly we get to renegotiate
how and where our monies go and to who.

But in all likelihood we will wait until the young have finally had enough, we will be calling them rioters and hooligans and let the police go out and shoot at them with rubber bullets and tear gas. (of course we will hope they are someone else's kids)

5/24/17       #50: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

Jason,
I hear you at your frustration and anger and a need for a reset.
Problem I see with what you wrote is the majority of folks I see don't want a reset so they can then be debt free and live within their means responsibly. I see more of the entitlement, "gimme" attitude, then an understanding of the problem and a willingness to right it.

Which is another reason I have stated I think when the reset does happen- either politically or as a revolution- nonviolently or not- the answer is secession of various groups/areas with the US into seperate countries.

Just as the artist formerly known as Tim, whose flavor of the day I cannot keep track of, and I could not live in the other's government peacefully neither will those who feel entitled and those that just want to have control of their own lives be able to co-exist. Though they might use each other to their own ends.

5/24/17       #51: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

Pat,
Zerohedge, among others, is wrong- probably 60% of the time. But then so is every other source. What they won't feed you is your official marching orders...I mean news. It's a contrarian site, both from the left and the right.

The fact that you think those stats are wrong makes me think you've drank the Kool aid. Those stats are how the government themselves have calculated CPI in the past- until the truth of it was simply too inconvenient and had to be nudged and then shoved.

As I've said, time will tell. But you aren't talking to a fence sitter, I've studied everything from the biggest bull to the permabear and all in between. Both current and economists within the last 150 years. I came by what I think the hard way- through thousands of hours of research and observation.

I'm sure you're not a fence sitter either-although it sounds like you've gone back and forth a couple times. An open mind is a good thing, but it takes facts to change mine and I've seen none. Only distorted reality of money printing- but I've seen that movie before and it will end, maybe just not as quickly as common sense would say.

5/24/17       #52: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
cabmaker

FamilyMan,

I notice there is a big ass forest fire going on just south of you. It's funny how you self-reliant types love to bitch about the government then hope and pray they show up with the calvary to save your ass during the fire & maelstrom.

Come to think of it the electricity you use to type that rant came from a government built hydro-electric dam near you as well.

As soon as you go off the grid you can send your rant in by carrier pigeon. Let us know how that works out for ya.

5/24/17       #53: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
jason

The reset is coming whether we like it or not
question is do we want to be a victim of it or lead it?

would be great (having missed the opportunity of doing my bit for the country eg, fighting a war against imminent invasion etc) to be part of the generation that re-drew the map for future generations,

Familyman unfortunately you are spot on with your response, we are all too interested in ourselves to look at the bigger picture and see what could be.

angry is the very minimum that could describe my feelings towards what is going on around me

5/24/17       #54: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

cabmaker, you are so off base you literally make me laugh and cry. You know I've been off grid for ten years right?

About those forest fires...who says I'm anti government? Government has it's place- small and answers to us, not the other way around. If a government is going to take land, then it has to protect it.

As for my place and my many neighbors, the firefighters skip it when the fires come. They know I'm prepared. Lots of my neighbors are also. We keep tractors and dig our own fire lines. We keep reservoirs, pumps and sprinklers. We keep things trimmed back. We spend our own time and money ahead of time to prepare and when it does come you can bet we are here fighting it right down to five gallon buckets.

Once again, you are so far off base it would be comical if it was not for the fact that you base your beliefs off this stuff and actually vote that way- which very much effects my family.

5/24/17       #55: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
cabmaker

FamilyMan,

I didn't realize that you generate your own electricity. Without that ability you wouldn't have that self-reliant cabinet shop. Good on ya!

And do you haul your cabinets to market on a horse & wagon?

Do you really eschew big government or do you just cherry pick your causes?

5/24/17       #56: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
jason

interesting response cabmaker most people when well and truly shot down as you were! take a break or come back with a new angle
your resilience deserves respect, your post on the other hand deserves derision

5/24/17       #57: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
jason

You know why the US is so f'd

If you speak up against the system you get branded unamerican

if you go along with the system you are owned by China

5/24/17       #58: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Pat Gilbert

Tim

It is true that government infrastructure spending is a good investment some of the time. Power grid, instate hwy, Calif aqueduct. BUT you can't possibly believe that anything that congress or the alphabet soup agencies or by executive order is a good investment. That would be truly insane.

5/24/17       #59: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

I swear that liberalism is mental illness. At the very least an inability to think clearly, rationally and long term.

What part of a person paying taxes for the use of a roadway do you not understand, cabmaker? That is not big government.

But what big government will give you is bad roadways. Roadways that are rundown due to red tape, bureaucracy and graft within the system. A system that has far more interest in helping itself stay fat and in control then doing even it's very few good tenants- like helping others (social safety net). Which is why even the few good tenants of liberalism are bad- because government is almost never the best vehicle to achieve said results.

I do think that liberalism does help in one way- it keeps the other side honest (even if not done for honest itself). There are bad men on both sides and no one needs absolute power and that is about as good as I have to say about your incoherent beliefs cabmaker.

Once again, for the record, I am not against government. If said government is limited, small and does not overstep it's bounds. I am not against taxes if done properly. But I have said that to you a dozen times through the years, almost as many times as we have had this forest fire discussion, which is why I just shake my head and wonder what the heck you are thinking.

5/24/17       #60: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
jason

oh hell! has this forest fire thing been going on for a while between you two?? WTF!!!

Governments role to serve the people is in your constitution isn't it? (I am not an American you will know better than I)

you fight to keep gun laws but not to control your out of control political system?

5/24/17       #61: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

Jason,
I think China is in more trouble then us. The plunge protection team has been working overdrive this last year- as hard as Japan's (and most of Japan's stocks are openly bought by the BOJ now, it's that bad).
Their banks and commodities are showing signs of breaking. Their stocks are down 10% this month and Bitcoin (one of the last ways to get money out of their country) is soaring... I still kick myself I didn't buy at $450 last year (passed $2,400 today). I think they are in trouble.

We are covered in shit, but we are still the cleanest shirt in the hamper at this point. Thing is we are so interconnected if one goes down we all do. But they know that so all the central banks are buying everyone else's bonds and stocks just to keep the musical chairs going a little while longer- who knows they think, maybe a miracle will happen and mathematics become obsolete! Or at least the rich and bankers can get their money out (insider selling at all time highs) and their bunkers stocked before the inevitable happens.

5/24/17       #62: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Alan F.

Pat,
Housing cost have been trending higher in SF for 30+ years, its not IPO money, its scarcity, and the real scarcity is lack of land, they can't make anymore. there aren't any orchards to convert, any old movie lots or oil fields to convert. Surrounded by water on 3 sides and a narrow border on the south.

its about 47 square miles or 30000 acres or 80 average farms

If it was 80 farms it would be .000038 of the farm's in the US.

A-

5/24/17       #63: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

Jason,
Our founders warned of a day when the populace could vote themselves money from the purse strings of the country and we are there. Both the left and right. There are some of us who battle but the truth is the majority of American's are voting for what they can get out of it at this point. The Constitution- as great of a document as it was/is- has been shreaded and is openly mocked by the left and the right. On it's best day it is given lip service now.

5/24/17       #64: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
jason

Fortunately the rich are completely ill-equipped to survive a breakdown of society

so either they become our servants or we eat them

I'm good with either

5/24/17       #65: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

Jason,
The rich aren't stupid. They might be fat and have no idea to live outside of modern conveniences- but they aren't stupid. And they have a ton of power and resources. Don't discount a preemptive strike or buying off those we've been discussing who have not caught on to what is going on. Wisdom says don't ever underestimate and enemy.

5/24/17       #66: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
cabmaker

FamilyMan,

Which modern conveniences do you go without?

Jason,

Same question to you.

5/24/17       #67: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
jason

Not stupid?,

Not evolving

If we can all see it (barring mass hallucination) and they are hoarding cash in the hope that somehow enough money (however much that is for these people?) will buy them out of the future that awaits them then they are stupid.

You need skills and common sense to survive, shopping is low on the list of survival skills

These people are more afraid than they let on, they know what they are doing is unsustainable, and they know we know

Luxury bunkers for sale, private islands being snapped up, reality is that they will end up living like the rest of us either underground or miles out to sea good luck to them

5/24/17       #68: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
jason

Hi Cabman

is this a trap??

OK i'm going for it

cellphone and the wifes (wifes first)

TV

Natural Gas

No electricity would suck (I like my machines)

Supermarkets

Banks (put this at the top)

Woodweb forums (fun but a real time eater)

and everything i'm not wearing

how did I do?

5/24/17       #69: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
cabmaker

Jason,

You did good.

Now we just got to work on that Donner Party cookbook.

5/24/17       #70: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
jason

had to look up the Donner party cookbook

better stock up on seasonings

5/24/17       #71: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
cabmaker

We can get seasonings from FamilyMan.

He makes his own.

5/24/17       #72: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Pat Gilbert

30 years is the same length of time as the tech boom.

Thomas Sowell has covered this very well, it is regulations.

Why is it sequestered to such a small area?

These things don't happen without a lot of help from government.

5/25/17       #74: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Alan F.

The tech boom didn't move into SF until the last 10 years, until then it was and still is predominately in Silicon Valley.

The concentration of capital in silicon valley is huge, Apple, Google, Facebook, to name a few. the GDP of those three companies combined exceed many states and countries.

5/25/17       #75: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Pat Gilbert

Cities are interesting in that knowledge is exchanged more easily in a locality. E.G wallstreet and finance, Hollywood and movies, Silicon Valley and computers.

I would bet that had the FANG phenomenon occurred in Oklahoma the price would not have risen so much. Because of a lack of regulations.

5/25/17       #76: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Alan F.

Pat,
There is also an abundance of land near all the Major OK cities and depending on location, people could commute from Kanas or Texas, depending on how far south or north the tech industry started in the cheap land area outside of Oklahoma City or Tulsa.

When tech first started in what is now Silicon valley it went to where land was cheap, out in the orchards.

Although SF may have unique regulations on Height and rent control, Silicon Valley doesn't and is subject to the same rules as riverside or Escondido or a bunch of other places in CA where land was cheap 30 years ago.

Before you had massive tech software you had Intel and AMD and all the industries supporting them. Computers and chips used to be made in California and Texas.

Then you had the Biotech boom and then the dotcom boom and now must the tech companies actually have real revenue.

5/25/17       #77: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Alan F.

What wasn't in OK 30-40 years ago was the University of CA Berkley or Stanford with the linear accelerator and Lawrence Livermore labs. There was a lot of emerging military tech in the bay area from WWII. and the university contracts.
Sun Microsystems came our Berkeley.

Ampex was the precursor to Dolby and was in the bay area, Oracles Larry Ellison came out of Ampex; Google was a Stanford grad project. So tech collaboration was synergetic to the area and companies and individuals migrate here.

That same environment didn't exist for tech in OK in the 50's and 60's.

5/25/17       #78: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Pat Gilbert

I have noticed the correlation between schools and tech startups, for decades, I agree on that point.

You are pointing to supply and demand being the only or main cause of the land cost being so high in the bay area.

Thomas Sowell who worked at Stanford, until recently, points to the main cause of high land costs in Calif being the regulations.

I don't think the land costs would be as high without the regulations.

Another factor that lends credence to your take is that previously movies, finance, tech did not have a world wide market, now it does which exponentially increases profits.

I'm going to stick with Sowell's take on this.

5/25/17       #79: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
cabmaker

Pat,

Which regulations would you (or Sowell) take away?

5/25/17       #80: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Pat Gilbert

I may have posted this before either way if you haven't read it this it is a good read.

How it can be

5/26/17       #81: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Alan F.

Pat,
I am talking the City of San Francisco, not the bay area, it is the city that is out of land with nowhere to go, lots of land in the surrounding area, Stanford just announced a 35 acre business park last week on land they acquired in 2009.

5/30/17       #82: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Gleninaz

Why is everything explained by politics? Free marketers blame the socialists and vice versa. Maybe we just have a crisis of expectations. Parents will cosign for $200000 in college loans to make sure the baby is in the dorm with a pool and workout facility when they know baby is not very bright. Baby would not take a minimum wage job if the minimum was $20 an hour. Baby needs to learn to work and there is only one proven teacher called hard knocks. The problem is parents and not the economy.

My first job was for $1 an hour 7 days a week in 110 degree heat. I learned to work hard for whatever I could get. We are becoming a nation of spoiled brats.

5/30/17       #83: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
jason

I don't think it is a problem with parenting,
society sets parental expectation as does peer pressure, we all want our kids to have opportunity and historically this was through further education, but is doesn't work any more, and no one is addressing this from government to early education.

And we have allowed capitalism to encroach into areas is does not belong, the system wants tax paying workers, so should be making the investment in creating them, not this exploitative system that hooks you from day one into the debt cycle, these student debts are after all sold by governments to corporations, who have no social responsibility.

They want us to pay-in, so they have an obligation to ensure the population is well educated and productive both personally and for the benefit for the nation as a whole, progressive governments understand this and don't try to compensate for their poor management of the education system by creating a retrospective vision of future work eg, more coal miners and low paying factory jobs (which will not materialize in any case due to automation)

It is time for government to wake up and restructure the education system for the coming future, and show an example to the rest of the world how to exploit the next industrial revolution, rather than look backwards for a solution.

5/30/17       #84: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Pat Gilbert

@Jason, good luck with that.

The economy doesn't have anything to do with political parties or economic schools of thought. Economics is economics, narratives obfuscate.

5/30/17       #85: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
cabmaker

The billionaire CEO of Hasbro Toys was quoted yesterday as saying his company has no idea about how to develop strategy in today's political climate.

According to him the current administration has no discernible rudder with respect to who our allies are and aren't and who our trading partners are or aren't.

Could you maybe explain again how politics has nothing to do with economy? (without using narrative in the sentence)

5/30/17       #86: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Pat Gilbert

So the head of the toy company indulges in narrative too.

Since Trump is disliked by both parties it is not a narrative issue.

It unlikely that he will pass or order tariffs because they are such a terrible idea.

5/30/17       #87: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Family Man

Do the people make the government or the government make the people? And what makes the people? Could it be their religion, DNA and culture? What happens when you change their religion, DNA and culture? How do you change their religion, DNA and culture? It's a deep rabbit hole going back to your basic beliefs about life and the very core beliefs of life. Like it or not, that is what this boils down to.

5/30/17       #88: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
cabmaker

FamilyMan,

Could you elaborate on what you are alluding to with this DNA stuff?

5/30/17       #89: Lack of workers holds back Utah's e ...
Pat Gilbert

Government is a tautology, it justifies it's own existence.


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