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Ruh Roh

8/22/17       
Pat Gilbert

Ruh Roh, Tim is going to have to change his story.

Ruh Roh

8/22/17       #2: Ruh Roh ...
cabmaker

Kieth Naughton, the author for that article, seems to be an spokesman for Ford Motor Company.

If you go past the headlines the premise of the article is that families with more kids need bigger cars. Bigger cars need bigger garages. Ergo the correlation between desire for kids and more millennials wanting to buy house.

You are both right that ten years after kids become 20 years old they become 30 years old and this a normal age for starting a family.

You are also right that most young families with kids want to buy a house.

There is still, however, the question of funding. Wages are not keeping up with the increase in real estate valuations.

8/22/17       #3: Ruh Roh ...
Pat Gilbert

Except when you factor in lower interest rates and inflation and a higher median income, housing prices are not yet at 2007 levels.

8/24/17       #4: Ruh Roh ...
David Waldmann Member

Website: vermonthardwoods.com

Not what I read the other day.

http://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-are-killing-list-2017-8/

8/24/17       #5: Ruh Roh ...
Pat Gilbert

David

One of the articles is wrong.

The age people buy their 1st house these days is 31.

I suspect the reason is lower child mortality. People usually have fewer children with lower child mortality.

The other factor is the decline in the workforce peaking in 2007, then declining, and now growing again.

From what I read the housing sales will really take off in 2020.

So take your pick but I think your article is wrong.

8/24/17       #6: Ruh Roh ...
cabmaker

The problem with statistics is that you can drown in an average of 3 inches of water. Relying on increasing median income as a barometer for future economic prosperity who gets to own that money.

The demographic you think is going to be buying these houses is not the demographic that is receiving the income gains.

Wealth grows but it also concentrates.
We didn't used to rent our houses from a Wall Street REIT.

Trend that component out and tell me what the charts predict.

8/24/17       #7: Ruh Roh ...
Pat Gilbert

Tim

The trouble with the vagaries you wallow in is that they are ambiguous and un predictive.

I will post a link later.

Either way I am stating very clearly that 2020 will be a banner year in home sales.

8/24/17       #8: Ruh Roh ...
David Waldmann Member

Website: vermonthardwoods.com

"Either way I am stating very clearly that 2020 will be a banner year in home sales."

What's your stock symbol? I'd like to get in on this.

More seriously, I don't put much stock (no pun intended) into predictions of any sort, no matter the source or logic. I'll believe it when it happens. I was merely pointing out there are as many predictions as pundits (present company possibly excepted), and sometimes more.

8/24/17       #9: Ruh Roh ...
Pat Gilbert

Of course Tim e.g. makes the same prediction over and over, I'm surprised he wasn't predicting the end of days with the eclipse.

Since you read the perfunctory article that you linked you might want to read one based on data.


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