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Manufacturing in 10 years.

7/23/12       
Jimmy

A question for you cabinet shop owners out there. Where do you see cabinet manufacturing in America in 10 years?

I personally think we are going to see a whole lot more cabinets made oversees, shipped unassembled (flat packed with cam-lock connectors and a cheap flat-head screw driver included), and sold over the web directly to customer, or through a showroom. This may not affect the custom shops. But then again it may inderectly.

What is your opinion and how are you adjusting your business model to stay profitable? Or maybe you don't think anything will change in 10 years and you don't plan on changing a thing?

7/24/12       #2: Manufacturing in 10 years. ...
JeffD

I think it's hard to accurately predict anything 10 years out. A major factor that is relatively unknown right now is where are oil prices going to be in 10 years? We have seen as oil prices steadily rise, the cost benefit of shipping something halfway across the world starts to drop. So if oil prices continue to rise over the next decade, I think it's entirely possible to see a reverse trend here?

Now another important factor is who's buying these cabinets? Mostly people shopping at the big box stores I would think? In which case they are not my clients anyway. I've firmly believed since I started out that if I have to compete with the box stores I'm going to lose. In fact I've done fewer and fewer kitchens over the last several years as the competition there is too much. I've focused more on the other aspects of built-in cabinetry the home centers really don't delve much into.

JeffD

7/24/12       #3: Manufacturing in 10 years. ...
Pat Gilbert

From reading this article the off-shoring thing is going to change.

I would look at the demographics in the U.S. 10 years from now, as that is key. The last of the baby boomers will be 58. The Madison ave people will have some insight into this.

From what I read the world will have a growing middle class.

Guaranteed automation will figure strongly into it, more robotics. How many people are in farming today compared to the past?

The pendulum is done swinging

7/24/12       #4: Manufacturing in 10 years. ...
mike

Personally, I think the small custom shop with CNC capability is well positioned to thrive. As mentioned above, oil prices will eventually throw the just-in-time, global trade system a major curve ball.

Ten years out, the only thing I'm sure of is that our lives, the technology we use and our values will be vastly different. Just think of what has happened in the last ten years.

Creativity is the key. You need to continually improve and change the way you do things. Take it as a challenge and you'll be ahead of the curve.

7/25/12       #5: Manufacturing in 10 years. ...
Adam

The majority of kitchen customers want to see and touch the product. I don't see the internet having much of an impact. The market you are describing has already been filled by the big box stores as far as product assembly/quality.

Custom cannot be made overseas. Face frame cabinets do not lend themselves to flat packing.

I predict that the market will switch to 50% panel. The push will be from the bottom. More white melamine condo style.

Do to increases in productivity(CNC, panel constuction) the work force will be made up of less skilled assemblers, average installers and skilled designers & CNC operators.

Its pretty much more of the same as the last decade. The custom cabinet industry will remain largely the same.

7/25/12       #6: Manufacturing in 10 years. ...
Jim Herron

I still want my flying car....
Forget 10 years, how about the next two.
I'm busier than I have been in 6 years, but this whole thing looks fragile for average joe. People with the coin are still hitting on all eight though.
I've seen an increase in estimates for people that "think" they may have the money or access to it.
I just did a house they locked a 15 year fixed at 2.85%
If you can't get housing moving at that rate, what can. The friction on the money is more than that.

8/13/12       #8: Manufacturing in 10 years. ...
Beau D Member

I'm not sure how relevent this is to your question, but it definitely gives some food for thought. About a year ago a popsicle stick manufacturing business re-opened somewhere in Ontario, creating roughly 60 jobs. The reason it closed in the first place is it couldn't compete with the Chinese. Now, with greater shipping costs and a growing middle class in China that wants better wages, it can.

9/3/12       #9: Manufacturing in 10 years. ...
chris

digital fabrication

9/16/12       #10: Manufacturing in 10 years. ...
"X"avier

First off, I expect a nother bubble to burst in the housing industry. All those track houses built on leased land will have to be moved or make a new lease.

Second, when moving into a house, you will have to bring your own cabinets in for only the basic cabinet (sink) will be there. When you sell or leave, you will take your cabinets with you. Cheaper to redo the sink cabinet to match your cabinets than to replace all cabinets/furniture. I expect this trend to grow. Growing population that will waste not because of expense.

"X"

9/22/12       #11: Manufacturing in 10 years. ...
Dakota

Ripping out cabinets and taking them with you to another house and re-installing them and getting a sink cabinet custom made to match your cabinets? That's pretty much the most absurd thing i've ever heard of. Kitchen cabinets are just as much a part of the house as the wall's the are hung on. Where does it stop? Lighting fixtures? Plumbing fixtures? Flooring? Doors? Windows?

9/27/12       #12: Manufacturing in 10 years. ...
"X"avier

Roll away cabinets. This is for tract homes and apartments that are rentals. Not custom jobs. Big savings for the owners. Easy to repair and maintain, less damage to the unit. There's no ripping out cabinets and ruining walls.
Just roll your cabinet/furniture right on in.

"X"


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